Perhaps I missed an announcement, but I just noticed today that Heroic Token odds are
1:16 for 4s and 1:5 for 3s…they used to be
1:14 for 4s and 1:4 for 3s
I know the odds changed because I wrote down the odds a couple weeks ago and I didn’t see any notification about it. Also, have Standard tokens always been 1:43 for 3s and 1:8 for 2s?
I can confirm that the odds for 4* PvP tokens odds for 4* went from ~1:11 to ~1:12, based on cross referencing of older posts in June. Cloak and Dagger PvP 4* odds was ~1:11 and 3* was ~1:5.
If it’s a 3* PvP the odds for 4* would be ~1:14 and 3* would be 1:4.
The odds for standard tokens look right.
As for Heroic Tokens, it seems to have increased.
Edit: based on previous posts in Feb this year, Heroic odds for 4* was 1:14. I can’t remember what the odds for 3* in heroics was.
Maybe they couldn’t handle all the praise after R158 and the increased saved cover count, so they’ve decreased the odds as the only change in R159 to get back on the usual forum track of complaints.
While we’re on the topic of HT odds, I’ve tracked my HT pulls since my restart 77 days ago:
Out of 204 HT pulls, I’ve gotten:
18 x 4s = 8.8% (above old average of 7.1%)
39 x 3s = 19.1% (below old average of 25.0%)
147 x 2*s = 72.1% (above old average of 67.9%)
14 x BHs = 24.6% (way above average of 5%, unless you count all HT pulls, which makes it 6.9%)
Bottom Line:
HT odds for 4s changed from 7.1% to 6.3% and 3s changed from 25% to 20%.
The displayed odds have always been, to my understanding, a statement of the actual odds. Whenever a bug in the store existed, the tokens displayed the true odds, even when they advantaged the players. And in Latest, the weighting showed the correct “4X odds!” once the pool was diluted enough.
Regardless, without official comment, I would still recommend not opening these tokens unless you really want to get more 2’s.
Clarity on this would be good. Heroics are not a regular source of 4* covers but over time they do produce.
With the somewhat wishy-washy implementation of 4* PvP (i.e. Event driven only so far and so not really seeing much of an increase) that was supposed to mean “increased odds of getting 4*” not really materialising, another reduction in 4* sources would be a sad blow.
You are also apparently getting less 3’s from these tokens. 1:5 instead of 1:4.
The odds display, if working correctly, is supposed to be automated to reflect the contents of the tokens.
So this is kind of a big deal, and apparently these odds existed prior to R159, but we don’t know when. Assuming this is not a display bug, we have been getting less 3’s and 4’s from Heroics and PVP tokens for an uncertain length of time.
If the rates on 3 and 4 star characters have dropped, this also means Bonus Heroes are potentially effected. Because the BH percentage is a set percentage which is then reduced by the distribution of 2/3/4 to get to the 5% mark.
Wow, it’s almost like the token odds splash page is trash and should have been fixed ages ago to show actual data, rather than vague approximation. . .
If only someone had been screaming into the void about this problem since early 2017. . .