I used to think that 0.2% was a ridiculously low drop rate for a new 4*. Then I saw the drop rate for War Machine…
I don’t understand why they do this - especially now that you can’t purchase covers directly with HP. You would think they would WANT to get more of these new covers out there. The higher the exposure of well covered new character the more people are going to be likely to spend to obtain them early.
It’s not just War Machine. All the 4*'s except Cyclops are 0.1% in those tokens. 
Haven’t we just reached the point where the number of 4s in the tokens means they round down to 0.1% chance for each 4 instead of rounding up to 0.2% chance for each 4* with the latest character release? Seems like a display issue and not a real change.
Bingo.
Haven’t done the math lately cause I stopped caring, but it’s quite likely this is a change from ~0.16% to ~0.14%. One additional character reducing the odds a hair.
According to my math, 29 4* in heroic tokens puts them at ~0.156 % to drop, rounded up to 0.2. So adding a few more now to 33 4*, that drops that to ~0.136 %, rounding down to 0.1
Good point. Weird that they wouldn’t adjust since 4*'s are where their focus is now. Not too much, since you don’t want to make it too easy for new players to wreck their scaling, but some adjustment in acknowledgement the growing rosters.
Or maybe GrumpySmurf1002 has the best attitude for this: stop caring about MPQ.
Could well be. I never bothered checking the drop rates for the other existing 4*, I just thought that the rates for the new 4* were better than the rates for the rest. If not, my bad.
For reference, assuming a rate of 0.149%, you have the following odds of getting any one particular 4*, including War Machine:
10-pack - 1.48%
40-pack - 5.79%
You have to open 465 tokens to have a better than 50% chance of getting at least one cover.
Using Natsufan01’s figure of 0.136%, that number rises to 510 tokens.
this is just the result of 4* pool dilution. They cap the percentage for 4s at some very small percent (3 or 4ish I think) and then divide that up between all the 4s. But the game only displays so many decimal points. So what we see is rounded and not terribly accurate. The real rate has been below .2% for some time now, and likely just dropped below .15% with the addition of war machine.
I would expect that at some point soon they will announce a 50% percent increase to 4* drop rates in heroic and event tokens with great fanfare. That will put all of them back up to .2% or maybe .3% if we are lucky!
As for why they include new release characters in event tokens at miniscule rates: it’s because some impatient players will drop hundreds of dollars on event token packs for those new characters hoping to get 1 cover of each color. And then they will spend even more $ on cps and iso to level them asap.
They’re still running 3* PvP as their primary PvP tournaments. They don’t want to acknowledge that they’ve changed the meta at all
Should be 4.6%
It was confirmed at 2.3% way back when, and then they made two changes. First confirmed as 50% increase, second confirmed as the same amount increase as the first time.
0.1%???
Why don’t they just DECREASE the 2* drop rates???
Why do we need such huge 2* drop rates? Surely they can decrease them the tiniest amount so that they can increase the 3* and 4* drop rates to I don’t know… 0.7% and 0.2%???
It won’t break the game, I swear!
But they clearly feel it will break the bank. This all ties back to the ‘rewards are established for a 3* meta, but we are in a 4* world now’ topic on which there are a thousand threads.
However you can buy covers with command points! Which costs more to covers, HP or CP?
To the person who suggested reducing the odds of drawing a 2* cover, I would imagine the official response would be is that there are a greater number of players who are at the 2* level than the 4* level therefore they are catering to the masses.
my last PVE and it had to suck.. Thats right after this event going just PVP … pve isnt worth it anymore
Yep, the rewards are completely ridiculous. At this point, we should have a daily 4* in the DDQ. But, it looks like they think we should be buying two thirteenths of a character a month, for ten bucks a pop. 
As others have said, this isn’t a drop rate change, it’s just that we crossed a threshold from rounding up to rounding down.
Every new 4* release shares a diminishingly small portion of the already low 4* drop rate.
Anyone buying these tokens to try to get War Machine is suffering from magical thinking whether the odds say 0.1% or 0.2%. If you really want a chance at drawing WM in tokens, you need to either wait for the next PvE where they will be featured at boosted 4* drop rates (either 1.4% like Cyclops in this event or one to two covers in an 80-item vault) or for their PvP event where they will be the only 4* in the token pool (the whole 4.6%).
We’re at least in a 4.5 * world now, with 4stars becoming less and less important. It’s similar to when they released their last 3* characters…some of them were really good, like Cyclops etc. but they didn’t cause much of a stir because the game was already happening at the 4* level.
That’s probably also why Grumpy doesn’t care, because he’s playing as usual otherwise 
So instead of a 98% chance of not getting war machine its now 99%? Whoop de doo. If you spent money on tokens before for particular champions you were crazy.
My goodness, I didn’t notice the .1%. I used to teach math too. =P Is it .01 or .1% then. I mean its a HUGE difference. 99.9 versus 99.99 I mean, this could be the difference between my 10,000 dollar buy in or me feeding homeless children somewhere.