I just won a CP in four tries on the 4* node in pve. Was I extremely lucky, or is this the result of an update in R91 with the devs looking out for us? Did the same nice thing happen for others?
It was luck. Had to grind down the 4* essential last night down to almost zero before I got the Command Point.
If it sounds too good to be true, it is.
Keep on grindin’
I’ve won them on the first try before…it’s almost anti-climatic…
I got my last 4 on the first or second clear. It really is random. The outlier cases are just so bad that it drives people bananas.
I got my last 2 on the first try, I was looking at my phone sideways like “that’s weird” 
4 tries is the average.
4 is not the average.
After 4 runs there is a 1/8 chance you have 4 rewards, 3/8 chance you have 3 rewards, 3/8 chance you have 2 rewards and 1/8 chance you have 1 reward
4 is the average.
With a sample size of 10,000
Number of Completions to (atleast) get the Command Point out
MIN: 1
MEAN: 4.0283
MAX: 22
While I’ve done it in 1, I also feel like I’ve had more than that maximum, lol
I have no hard data but I feel like my average is in the 4-5X range. I have taken as many as 12 before but get a 1st time every once in a while too. I think the times you get it the first time, its easy to dismiss as an outlier and you’re brain doesn’t count it, but the outliers on the other end - 10-15X count extra because of the extra work it takes.
Way to go! Now do that 119 more times, and you can get yourself a 4* cover!
Sad, but true 
Wish I was that lucky. Tried the final node 7 times now and after getting the first Iso reward my next six have been all 20 iso. What are the flipping odds? Great. Hopefully can try couple more times but I have a feeling I’m going to see 20 iso again and again.
1.5% to get heads 6 times in a row
Lol. Thanks for the odds. Just in case anyone is curious streak broke at 9 attempts…got crit boost. Thing essential grounded down to 1 and still only 1 of 4 rewards. Obviously not meant to be at all
I think I may be earning myself a reputation for incorrectly calculating the odds of things in this game, but according to my workings the chances of getting the 1CP in 7 tries are 86.7%
If I’m right, put another way that means almost 1 in every 7 people will not get the CP on any given node in their first 7 tries.
If I’m right, this is a lot worse than I thought it was going to be when I started doing my calculations and frankly it is unacceptable. So, in every 7 people usually 2 of those people (1 in 4) will get the CP on their first try and 1 of those 7 people won’t get it in a grind down to zero?! Not cool.
I’ve noticed on stubborn boards if you grind them down so that they only give one point I have always got the command point on that try. Only 120 to advance a 4 cover after tomorrow… ouch
Some good math. The problem is with a function with so much right-sided skewness, the mean isn’t terribly useful. The median is more important.
Interestingly, if the mean is 4 with skewness, the median (50th percentile) must mathematically be quite a bit less than that. Unfortunately, those several times when it takes 8+ tries stick in our minds.
Assuming your odds are correct…
100% * 1/8 +
75% * 3/8 +
50% * 3/8 +
25% * 1/8
== (1 + 2.25 + 1.5 + .25) / 8
== 5/8
== 62.5%
So for they odds you gave, 62,5% of people have the CP after 4 tries.
As we know the distribution is skewed right and bounded on the left, the 50% line (median) is less than the average (mean).
So for the odds you gave, the average of 4 seems reasonable.