odds?

Anyone able to calculate the odds of this:

I have opened 109 Heroic tokens on the trot & not got any 3 or 4*'s

Had a look at the odds of a 3* or better & apparently it’s 33%

So my odds of this are 33% x 33% x 33% … 109 times

I’d be surprised if its not more than a million to 1

Assuming the 33% statistic is right, there’s a 1.1 x 10^-17 % chance of that happening. You’re sub-femto scale. About 1 in 100 quadrillion.

Buy a lotto ticket. Either you’re due, or the papercut you get when the cashier hands you the ticket will be so bad it’ll put you out of your misery.

oooohh

learn something new every day - sub-femto (I had to look it up!)

Makes my crap luck worth it I guess?

Cheers

but I’m more likely to win a lightsabre than a 3* from my Heroic pulls it seems! icon_e_biggrin.gif

Assuming they were all single tokens, the actual odds of not getting >2 star pull per draw is actually 71.5% (13 2-stars with 5.5% chance each), so the odds of getting no >2 star pulls at all for 109 pulls in a row is actually 1.31E-16, approximately 1 in 7.6 quadrillion.

For comparison, the chance of winning the jackpot in the UK National Lottery is approximately 1 in 14 million, or 1.75E-8. So your pull streak is actually less likely than winning the jackpot for the UK National Lottery twice in a row (5.11E-15).

So let’s just say I’m a little bit sceptical of your claim. :stuck_out_tongue:

Actually, it’s 29% if you add up all the numbers. Keep in mind, though, that those numbers are rounded. If we add a significant digit and assume the numbers are as low as possible to round up to 2% and 6% (1.5% and 5.5%), the chance could actually be just over 25%.

That just goes to show you … it is NOT random.

It is to certain extent, but it is controlled by them to some extent also.

So… think about marketing… think about stinginess.

Can you figure out the patterns?

Dudemon

At the rate the OP is going they have a better chance of pulling OML from a standard token.