Percentages of 5-Packs/Fat Packs/Big Boxes Updated 3/19/16

Magic: The Gathering - Puzzle Quest MtGPQ General Discussion
1

The_Leftist asked me to continue his great work on collecting the outcomes of us opening the different kind of packs.

Feel free to continue posting all new packs in this thread.
For 5 Card Boosters and Fat Packs please add the info, where you got it from:

  • Daily Reward (DR)
  • Quick Battle Reward (QB)
  • Crystal Shop (CS)

I will only use data from complete packs. So please count the Commons and Uncommons too.

If you click on “show”, you can see all the percentages for the different categories (Crystal Shop/Daily Reward/Quick Battle).

5 Card Boosters

icon_arrow.gif
95 Total
manacrystal.png
1 Crystal Shop
star.png
87 Daily Rewards
enemystrike.png
6 Quick Battle
healthpack.png
1 Origin Unknown

Average 5 Card Booster icon_arrow.gif
Total
2,69 Commons (53,89%)
1,97 Uncommons (39,37%)
0,32 Rares (6,32%)
0,02 Mythics (0,42%)

[spoiler]Average manacrystal.png
Crystal Shop 5 Card Booster
1,00 Commons (20%)
4,00 Uncommons (80%)
0,00 Rares (0%)
0,00 Mythics (0%)

Average star.png
Daily Reward 5 Card Booster
2,72 Commons (54,48%)
1,98 Uncommons (39,54%)
0,28 Rares (5,52%)
0,02 Mythics (0,46%)

Average enemystrike.png
Quick Battle 5 Card Booster
2,50 Commons (50%)
1,50 Uncommons (30%)
1,00 Rares (20%)
0,00 Mythics (0%)[/spoiler]
Fat Packs

icon_arrow.gif
79 Total
manacrystal.png
8 Crystal Shop
star.png
9 Daily Rewards
enemystrike.png
38 Quick Battle
healthpack.png
24 Origin Unknown / Pre 1.31 Data

Average Fat Pack icon_arrow.gif
Total
8,81 Commons (44,05%)
8,65 Uncommons (43,23%)
2,19 Rares (10,95%)
0,35 Mythics (1,77%)

[spoiler]Average manacrystal.png
Crystal Shop Fat Pack
9,50 Commons (47,5%)
9,13 Uncommons (45,63%)
1,13 Rares (5,63%)
0,25 Mythics (1,25%)

Average star.png
Daily Reward Fat Pack
7,78 Commons (38,89%)
8,33 Uncommons (41,67%)
3,22 Rares (16,22%)
0,67 Mythics (3,33%)

Average enemystrike.png
Quick Battle Fat Pack
10,2 Commons (51,18%)
8,05 Uncommons (40,26%)
1,58 Rares (7,89%)
0,13 Mythics (0,66%)[/spoiler]
Big Boxes

icon_arrow.gif
12 Total (CS)

Average Big Box icon_arrow.gif
Total
33,0 Commons (47,14%)
31,0 Uncommons (44,29%)
4,83 Rares (6,9%)
1,17 Mythics (1,7%)

Thanks for contributing.

2

i just oppened a fat pack from the ladder reward

10 uncommon, that was it

3

A Fatpack should include 20 cards.

4

ok

10 uncommon
10 common

5

From 3/7 Quick Battle 3rd place Fat Pack:

Pack x: C/U/R/M

Pack 1: 2/2/1/0
Pack 2: 2/2/0/1
Pack 3: 3/1/1/0
Pack 4: 4/1/0/0

6

Feb. daily Fat Pack: 14/6/0/0
3/7 Quick Battle FP: 13/7/0/0

(This is now 4 straight Fat Packs with no rates or mythics icon_cry.gif
at least this last QB FP gave me like 3 uncommon I didn’t have yet)

7

Ok, I updated the list. I think I will update about 2 to 3 times a week. Keep the informations coming.

I decided to hide the information about the different pack categories (Crystal Shop/Daily Reward/Quick Battle) so you will only see the percentages of only the total number of 5 Card Packs/Fat Packs/Big Boxes by default.

That way it’s easier to compare the different Pack sizes with each other. You can still watch the other categories by clicking the “show” buttons.

8

how can you keep playing after that?

i feel like quitting after the 1st FP without any rare. I played my ass off, ended 3rd in ladder. I was playing until the fucking final second of the ladder time because i was only 5-20 ribbons from falling to rank 7 and missing the FP because the ones that were behind were like crazy doing the final push.
And i got nothing.

I feel exhausted after a whole weekend playing this. Such a let down. I hope this is a bug, thats like the only way ill keep playing this. If they went too far lowering on the rare/mythics drop rate on purpouse ill rather quit.

if the devs want us to pay money to get cards, the good way to do it is releasing more cards so i, as i player, will consider paying to save time grinding to get the same things with crystals, not making UNSATISFYING to be f2p

9

I don’t know what the deal is with me being unable to send you reputation points. I’ve tried for 3 straight days to no avail.

Anyways, thanks for continuing my work, and I hope that you can bring everyone accurate draw rates without setting any fires.

10

No problem. I don’t care for those reputation points.it’s not that anybody but me can see my points. So for me the reputation system is just a way to quickly agree with or like a post

And working on this excel document was actually fun to me. And now that I have it, it’s no big deal to update this thing.

Also thanks for starting this data collection.

11

I surrogate gave him a point for you. icon_e_smile.gif

12

how do we read this X,Y% format for the percentages? I am missing something with how we’re arriving at the data outside of seeing them in parenthesis at the end.

Thanks for all your hard work!

13

Not sure if you’re counting the timed 3-card packs, but just opened one and, after thinking “Huh” at the odds of getting a pack of all white cards, opened the first one to find it was my very first mythic (Starfield of Nyx). Other 2 cards were both common.

14

It appears that he is using comma’s instead of decimal points.

So, 26,27 correlates to 26.27% chance per card

15

I had stopped collecting 3 pack data after amassing more than 500 packs worth of data. I don’t know if they have changed draw rates for 3 packs since the update, but from what I remember…

~1 in 166 3 packs gives 1 Mythic

~1 in 16 3 packs gives 1 Rare

~1 in 2 3 packs gives 1 uncommon

Although, this data is essentially worthless now that we are unable to purchase 3 packs with runes

And while there aren’t the same amount of cards in each color category, a rather quick, but not precisely accurate, calculation will tell you that the odds of getting 3 white cards in a 3 pack are (1/6)(1/6)(1/6) which is 1 in 216. As stated, this is not precise, as it doesn’t take into consideration that not all colors have the same amount of cards, and doesn’t take into consideration that different rarities have different draw rates as well.

16

Thank you for taking over it! At least I know that the information is still out there. As to how each player interprets it is solely up to them.

17

Would it help if I write 50.00% instead of 50,00%? It’s just how we write it in Germany.

Not sure if I understand your post completely. I hope an example will help.

Average Fat Pack icon_arrow.gif
Total
7,72 Commons (38,6%)
9,05 Uncommons (45,26%)
2,75 Rares (13,77%)
0,47 Mythics (2,37%)

This means that an average Fatpack looks like this:
~ 8 Commons
~ 9 Uncommons
~ 3 Rares

Almost every 2nd Fat Pack has a Mythic included.

That’s what all the first numbers are about.
The Percentages tell you the chance that every card from a Fat Pack has, turning out to be a C/U/R/M. In our example we see that almost every 2nd card will be Uncommon. The percentages also hep to compare different kind of packs easier.

BUT keep in mind that our percentages don’t have to be accurate. That’s why we will collect more data so that we can close in on the real numbers.

Also keep in mind that it seems to make a difference where the packs come from. So it makes more sense to compare Big Boxes with Fat Packs from the Crytal Shop than comparing them with all Fat Packs (total) because total includes the QB Fat Packs.

I hope this helped. If there are still questions or suggestions how to present the percentages better, feel free to ask or suggest.

18

As The_Leftist already mentioned, it’s not useful anymore to know the chances of 3 packs because we aren’t able to get more than 3 a day. That’s why I don’t really collect this kind of data.

Congrats on your first mythic.

19

Quick Battle 2nd place fat pack results:
15 commons
5 uncommons

20

I got war oracle bwahahahahaha.

Also 2 rares.

So I dunno. I think the fat packs are okay?