Here were the numbers from the first time they gave out drop rates from an a old post of mine…
“At 14.29% drop rate with 10 drops your chance of getting no thors is roughly 21.39% (85.71% ^ 10) or 78.61% of getting atleast 1.”
So it went from damn near 80% chance of getting featured hero (after it was no longer guaranteed) to just over 1/3 now, for the people who were wondering how it’s evolved over time
We can do his all day folks, somebody please stop us! We can’t stop ourselves… 
I thought that it worked out to an average of like 1.4 covers when they first changed to to a chance, instead of guaranteed
Just not heavily invested in a forum for a game i’ve stopped playing(thanks true healing!) Dont have anything to add. Not really gonna crunch numbers for a game I’ve stopped playing so if proven wrong…meh so be it…wouldn’t be the first time.
!(http://www.court-records.net/animation/edgeworth-confident(a)
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May haps, this was from the first time they added the little button where you could see the percentages. I don’t know what the drop rates were when they first undid the guaranteed covers so it’s entirely possible there was something between guaranteed and this
Great info. It’s amazing how much math I’ve forgotten over the 20 or so years since I last had any sort of math class.
Question: Would the chance of getting a specific color for a three color character be just 1/3 of that percentage, approx 12%, or is it more complicated than that? I’m guess the latter.
BTW, I’ve only ever opened 2 ten packs, the awards from seasons 2 and 3, and have gotten 19 2s and 1 X-Force Wolverine, so basically 20 2s. And I thought they were pushing roster diversity…
It depends. Given the information we have, I can’t really tell you much about rates for individual covers. If it’s just a straight-up 1/3 chance once the cover has been determined, then yeah, I think it’d be about 12% for a certain color… But there might be more complex things going on behind the curtain.
So assuming colors are evenly distributed it’s 1/3 of the drop rate for the cover. For simplicity let’s call this individual color drop rate “turkey sandwich”
So chance of not getting turkey sandwich is 1- turkey sandwich. Let’s call this variable corn
So the chance of buying a ten pack and not getting atleast one of the color you’re looking for is corn^10
Comes out to ~13.74% chance of getting atleast one of a specific color from a 10 pack assuming drop rate for character is 4.4 and 3 colors have an equal chance, so turkey sandwich is (1/3)*4.4
stop trying to do math, someone started a new meme thread which needs you.
Math and I are homeboys, how dare you
This will surely get a forehead slap if you read it. 14.29% drop rate, with 10 drops absolutely comes out to an AVERAGE of 1.4 covers (just multiply your .143 chance times 10). However, there is still a 21.4% chance of getting none, as mr. bastrd has kindly math’d out for us.
That said, wasn’t the very first time a cap themed event that had him at like 22% or something? I forget the exact numbers, but I thought it was something around 20%.
They did it for a random Thor event. Then it went away for a while. So what you’re referring to might have been once it went permanent
Please, Mr. Bastrd is my father. Or at least I assume. I’ve never met him… papa?!
I remember that. Cos I bought the packs then, and thought that it was okay value.
The super soldier packs have only 1 type of 3*, which is Steve Rogers. And yes it was around 21%. But because you only get one type of cover, you are guaranteed that any golden bling bling gives you a Steve Rogers.
Compared to the 4% rates now, the 4% looks miniscule.
I’m missing only a handful of 3* cards now, 5 I think, and all 3 4* toons. (I’ve tossed IW thrice now thinking how poorly the forum rates her). Anyway, my statistical question is this: what are the chances of getting more than one of the cards I’m missing in a 10 pack? Been trying to figure how many slots I should have open before I commit to that big click.
0 right? Considering both will only contain 2* cards… heh, no really, rather curious.
Missing toons are lazy cap, the hood, im40, cmags n lazy thor.
Never having taken statistics, I doubt my answer would be right even with the formula given…
There’s a 0.9% chance to draw each of your five missing 3* characters and a 1.5% chance you draw one of the missing 4*s, for a total of 7.5%.
Chance you draw at least one missing character: 1-(1-7.5%)^10 = 55%.
Chance you draw exactly one missing character: .925^9 * .075 * 10 = 37.2%.
Therefore the chance you draw two or more missing characters is 18%. Of that 18%, there’s a roughly 1 in 7 chance that your multiples are of the same character (it’s higher than that due to the unequal chances of drawing 4*s, but I’m feeling lazy about calculating exactly what it is), so it’s about a 15% chance you’ll need at least two roster slots, something like that.
That is handy info to have. Thanks!