Hello all! A bunch of us have been discussing the drop rates of PVP rewards in this particular topic. This subject has been of interest to me - I started a PVP reward tracker waaaaay back when they started dropping specific characters instead of standard tokens, and gone through several iterations of it. My most recent one tracks data on different lines, so I can parse some of the data differently (e.g. are Lightning Rounds different than other PVPs?) This is a relatively recent development - so there’s not a lot of data there. Regardless, I thought I’d post this. I’d love to see if anyone else has been collecting this data, maybe we can get a good model.
Anyway, the above topic started when people noticed a lower 2* drop rate on the lightning rounds. I had not been tracking anything separately until then, so I started. I quickly noticed a distinct difference between the Heroic Lightning Rounds (every third one,) and the Villainous Lightning Rounds. I also separated out the Season Sim for the most recent season, so I had the following hypotheses:
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All Featured Character PVP has roughly the same drop rates - if this isn’t so it’s going to be hard to test as the sample size is going to be really small.
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the Season Simulator has the same drop rate as Featured Character PVP
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Heroic Lightning Rounds have a higher chance of 2*s
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Villainous Lightning Rounds are similar to other PVPs.
So my theory is that the Heroic LRs are the outlier, everything else is pretty much the same. I don’t think the data is particularly conclusive, but so far it doesn’t quite support that theory. Here’s my breakdown:
Featured Character PVP
Reward ---- Count — %
70 ISO-8 — 154 — 34.8%
140 Iso-8 — 100 — 22.6%
250 Iso-8 — 30 — 6.8%
1* Cover — 133 — 30.1%
2* Cover — 25 — 5.7%
Total — 442
Season Sim
Reward ---- Count — %
70 ISO-8 — 11 — 39.3%
140 Iso-8 — 4 — 14.3%
250 Iso-8 — 3 — 10.7%
1* Cover — 10 — 35.7%
2* Cover — 0 — 0.0%
Total — 28
Villians LR
Reward ---- Count — %
70 ISO-8 — 246 — 46.2%
140 Iso-8 — 143 — 26.9%
250 Iso-8 — 23 — 4.3%
1* Cover — 88 — 16.5%
2* Cover — 32 — 6.0%
Total — 532
Heroes LR
Reward ---- Count — %
70 ISO-8 — 140 — 36.1%
140 Iso-8 — 73 — 18.8%
250 Iso-8 — 12 — 3.1%
1* Cover — 51 — 13.1%
2* Cover — 112 — 28.9%
Total — 388
With only 28, I think we can discard the Season Sim as statistically insignificant. Here’s with that number folded in to the Featured Character PVP:
Normal + Season Sim
Reward ---- Count — %
70 ISO-8 — 165 — 35.1%
140 Iso-8 — 104 — 22.1%
250 Iso-8 — 33 — 7.0%
1* Cover — 143 — 30.4%
2* Cover — 25 — 5.3%
Total — 470
What I wasn’t counting on was the difference between that and the Villains LR to be so sharp. Nearly twice as many 1s drop in “normal” PVP compared to the Villains LR. The difference is made up mostly in 70 Iso, but we also have a slightly higher amount in 140 as well. As expected, the Heroic LRs are very different than others - the 70 Iso is about the same as “normal,” 140 Iso slightly lower, 250 Iso noticeably lower (but the drop rate on that is so low it’s difficult to be really accurate with it,) the 1 drop rate is less than half, but the 2* drop rate is through the roof - something like 5x normal.
Of course, with only 1000 points of data it’s hard to be absolutely certain, but it does look like we have some very significant trends. While I definitely have less Heroic LRs than other forms of data, I tracked four week’s worth, and all of them showed pretty much this trend, here are the %s (in order, 70 Iso, 140 Iso, 250 Iso, 1*, 2*)
32.1% — 15.4% — 2.6% — 7.7% — 42.3%
31.4% — 13.7% — 2.0% — 17.6% — 35.3%
40.4% — 19.2% — 4.1% — 13.7% — 22.6%
35.4% — 23.0% — 2.7% — 14.2% — 24.8%
So even my worst week had quite a lot more than normal.