Collecting data on this will be a waste of time. When a few people get an upgrade, one of them will for sure post it.
My guess is that it will be ultra rare so it will be almost impossible to get an accurate percentage out of such a data collection.
If we don’t collect data and get about one post per month about it just happened to someone we will already know that it’s a thing and that chances are super rare.
And why should we even care if chances are 1 to 10000 or 1 to 100000000? Would definitely not change anything for me. Collecting data on chances for opening different kind of boosters on the other hand does make sence because with that data you can decide if you wanna act in a different way (spending 600 instead of 200 crystals).
I was thinking it’s probably about 2 percent. Seems like I’m the only one who has gotten an upgrade (uncommon to rare), and you are right. More people are likely to post they got the upgrade than not, but if we can get enough people to post they aren’t, perhaps the developers will make the chances higher. Which is one reason I keep track of booster percentages. The devs are less likely to change things people complain about if there isn’t a decent amount of data to back up their complaints. Worst case scenario, nothing changes, but best case scenario, they possible change it from 1:50 to 1:20, which makes it worth trying in my opinion
You will have like a 1 % chance to upgrade from common to rare and like 0.1 % from rare to mythic.
Why should devs give people any reason to think they have a high chance to get a rare with only one fight? They want us to play more, not less. And they are making their money by people having probs getting the higher tier cards so they won’t just throw them after us.
At first I had kind of hoped (expected) that one person from each prize tier would get upgraded. So for 2-6, one would get mythic, the other 3 would get the expected rare. I’m 0/3 so far. Of course when I finished first I got Starfield of Nyx
Keep in mind:
All of us have played through - at most - 8 PvPs. Most people have probably played fewer than that (especially since the 1st blue PvP was so screwed up). So if the chance is even as high as 1 in 20, we just don’t have that many samples yet to really get a feel for it.
I believe I’ve gotten 1/7 upgrades so far - in that I’ve played 7 PvPs and one of them have been upgraded. But that might not be right because the “claim” button doesn’t show you what your reward should have been, and you just have to remember what it was and then compare it to what you got. I might have placed into a rare and not been upgraded from uncommon, for example. And frankly whenever I get a dupe I don’t pay much attention anyway.
The chance is low - that’s for sure. But it does happen, and that’s what’s important. I agree it would be difficult to track, unless you got a dedicated group of people who simply reported every single time for a few weeks.