Reference: 10-pack Heroic token probabilities- Updated

Marvel Puzzle Quest MPQ Tips and Guides
1

Since there’s usually the poll asking about gold covers people pull from the 4k point (and season placement) 10-packs, I thought I’d put the expected distribution here:

Updated for Season XVI increases:

0 gold covers: 2.11%
1 gold: 9.95%
2 gold: 21.07%
3 gold: 26.44%
4 gold: 21.77%
5 gold: 12.29%
6 gold: 4.82%
7 gold: 1.30%
8 gold: 0.23%
9 gold: 0.02%
10 gold: <0.01%

The chances of multiple 4* characters have improved, but not much. None is still the most likely outcome (70%, down from 76%). 26% chance of one 4* character; 4% chance of two, and <0.5% chance of more than two.

Prior to Season XIV:

0 gold covers: 10.34%
1 gold: 26.34%
2 gold: 30.19%
3 gold: 30.51%
4 gold: 9.15%
5 gold: 2.79%
6 gold: 0.59%
7 gold: 0.09%
8 gold: 0.01%
9 gold: <0.01%
10 gold: <0.01%

There was a pretty big boost to the 10-pack odds beginning for season 14. 10-pack awards with no gold covers shouldn’t quite be a thing of the past, but those who are good enough to score multiples shouldn’t have multiple strikeouts.

Seasons XIV-XV:

[spoiler]0 gold: 2.55%
1 gold: 11.32%
2 gold: 22.65%
3 gold: 26.65%
4 gold: 20.66%
5 gold: 10.98%
6 gold: 4.05%
7 gold: 1.03%
8 gold: 0.17%
9 gold: 0.02%
10 gold: <0.01%

After pulling a Goddess of Thunder token in a sub reward yesterday, I got curious and ran one separate set of math on the current Heroic 10-packs, showing the expected distribution of 4* covers only. The most likely outcome is no 4* covers (76%), followed by one 4* cover (21%), then two (2.6%). Because I’m truncating a bit, the odds of three or more 4* covers in a 10-pack are essentially negligible.[/spoiler]

Update 6/15/2015: Adjusted odds to account for addition of Bullseye (Classic) & Vision to Heroic tokens. Also prepped separate note regarding expected distribution of 4* covers (which is a subset of the 3/4* table).

The May/June Q&A video indicated that the odds of pulling a 4* cover in a token will increase at some point in the near future. As soon as I notice that’s live, I’ll update the math and repost here.

Update, 6/29/2015: The increase in 4* odds for Season XVI has gone into effect. Ice_IX has noted elsewhere that instead of rounding up to 0.3%, it’s now rounding down to 0.3%, so I’m pretty sure my numbers are such that I shouldn’t be reporting two decimal places. However, having started like that for the earlier runs, I’m going to stick with it.

2

Is there a difference in probability from the seasonal 10 pack vs a purchased one?

3

Nope. But, it’s possible to earn at least one free 10-pack per versus season for hitting 4000 points. The general consensus is that spending HP to purchase cover packs is a sucker’s bet - it’s better to use them for roster slots or purchasing specific covers after acquiring the first one.

4

I’ve updated the OP to account for the addition of Bullseye and Vision. The May Q&A video said that the chances of 4* characters from tokens will be increasing in the near future; I’ll update here when it does.

5

Thanks for the work! I didn’t expect the odds to increase so much!

6

After the increased odds, i had my first 0 gold season 10 pack ever… previous 2 seasons i had 4 and 5..

7

It sounds like the odds in Heroic tokens will get updated on Monday. I’ll update this post sometime the evening after the update goes live.

8

As promised, the expected distribution is updated.