Satanno's token hoard: Season XXXII

Marvel Puzzle Quest MPQ General Discussion
1

Yup! I’m at it again. Saved all me tokens last season, then opened all me tokens at once. Here’s the hoard! I’ve added a couple more little statistical tidbits, but the methodology remains the same. I’ll post the links to my previous hoards after this, too. Because someone out there might give a crap!

The hoard

  • 264 silver tokens
  • 33 Elite tokens
  • 168 mixed gold tokens
  • 3 Heroic 10-packs
  • 638 Command Points

The pulls:

[spoiler]Silver tokens (264)
Quicksilver (green)
Punisher (red)
Blade (black)
She-Hulk (red)
Daken (black)
Patch (red x2)
Falcon (yellow)
Hulk (red)

  • 3* pull rate: 3.4%
  • 2* pull rate: 11.3%

Elite tokens (33)
Squirrel Girl (yellow)
Spider-Man (yellow)
Black Widow (red, purple)
Falcon (purple)
Thor (yellow)
Captain Marvel (black)
Black Panther (yellow) <back to back with Captain Marvel

  • 3* pull rate: 24.2%

Heroic gold tokens (101, 115 after champion rewards)
Rocket & Groot (blue)
Cyclops (red)
Iron Man (yellow) < back to back with Cyclops
The No-Futzer (blue)
Scarlet Witch (green)
Colossus (yellow) <back to back with Scarlet Witch
Iron Fist (purple)
Nova (red)
Beast (yellow, blue)
Doctor Octopus (black) <four in a row w/ Iron Fist, Nova, Beast
Loki (purple x2) < one back to back with Beast blue
Ragnarok (red)
Cyclops (yellow)
Captain Marvel (black) <back to back with 3* Cyclops
Magneto (yellow)
Hood (yellow)
X-23 (green) <back to back with Hood
Doctor Doom (black, purple)
Totally Adequate Hulk (blue)
Psylocke (blue)
Bullseye (purple)
Elektra’s Worthless Ass (red)
Falcon (blue)
Totally Adequate Hulk (blue)
Wasp (yellow)
Magneto (yellow)
Deadpool (red)
Black Widow (green)

Heroic 10-packs (3)
Rocket & Groot (blue x2)
Iron Fist (green), Quake (blue), Cyclops (yellow)
Gamora (green), Punisher (black), Doctor Doom (purple)

Simulator (4)
Iron Man (blue)
Black Widow (green)
Quake (yellow)

Meet Rocket & Groot (5)
Squirrel Girl (green)
Patch (yellow)

Fresh Cut (3)
Thor (yellow)
Kingpin (yellow)

Earth’s Mightiest (3)
War Machine (blue)
Black Panther (blue)

Cage Match (3)
Spider-Man (blue)

Best Friends Forever (3)
Human Torch (red)
Kamala Khan (green)

Class of 2016 (3)
Thor (yellow)

I Choose You! (3)
Rocket & Groot (blue)

Boss Rush (5, vault)
Hood (black)
Iron Fist (purple)

Thick as Thieves (6, vault)
Totally Adequate Hulk (black)
Colossus (red)
Sentry (red)

Dark Avengers: Heroic (5, vault)
Totally Adequate Hulk (black)
Patch (green)

Juggernaut: Heroic (6, vault)
Wasp (blue)

Venom Bomb (6, vault)
Cyclops (black)
Black Widow (red)
Thor (green)
Gwenpool (green)

Command Points (730 after champion rewards = 36 pulls)
Wasp (blue x2)
Quake (yellow)
Old Man Logan (red)
Thing (green, yellow)
Phoenix (green)
Moon Knight (black)
Baglady (green, blue)
Thor (blue, yellow)
Kingpin (purple)
Deadpool (black)
Star-Turd (red x2, yellow)
Ghost Rider (black)
X-23 (green)
Drax (purple)
Professor X (blue)
Elektra’s Worthless Ass (purple)
Iron Man 46 (red)
Iceman (blue)
The No-Futzer (purple)
Miles Morales (red, purple, yellow) <red and purple back to back with each other
Green Goblin (yellow)
Luke Cage (red)
Hulkbuster (black)
Peggy Carter (yellow)
Totally Adequate Hulk (green)
Faptain (red)
Nova (black)
Mr. Sucktastic (blue)

The following events yielded no gold pulls:
Black Vortex (3)
Fist Bump (3)
Sticks & Stones (3)
RAWR! (3)[/spoiler]
I totally neglected to note how much Iso I finished with, because I’m stupid. It was a decent amount. icon_razz.gif
3* pull rate from gold (excluding 10-packs): 21.9%
4* pull rate from gold (excluding 10-packs): 9.8%
5* pull rate: 11.1%

Observations and (purely subjective) conclusions:

  1. For the first time in a very long time it seems that all my tokens behaved pretty much as expected. Except for the stupid 5* pulls…because those are the only ones that matter. Grumble, grumble.
  2. At least I got to sleep easy knowing that I could make use of those 5* pulls. I would surely be grinding my teeth in fury were I one of the unfortunate many to pull an unusable 5* cover. That shit is not acceptable.
  3. The 2* farm is perhaps the greatest thing ever. It makes opening almost every token feel much better, knowing that I’ll have a use for almost everything that pops out. Whee!
  4. Is it just me, or did I pull an awful lot of yellow covers? Weird.
  5. Again, I didn’t touch my Legendary Tokens. Banner and Black Widow are still on the Suck List and Doctor Strange is looming on the horizon. It’s gonna be pretty big when I break the seal on those. As of this post I’m up to 40 in the bank!

I need to update my closing statement, now that we are already seeing a second wave of character re-balances with Star-Turd set to become Star-Not-As-Much-Of-A-Turd. I sure hope someone else coins a catchier name, like Totally Adequate Hulk. (That makes me giggle.) I’m hoping that the other bottom-of-the-barrel 4* characters (Elektra, Mr Fantastic, and Invisible Woman) will be up soon so I can stop banging on about this.

But the devs aren’t off the hook yet!

Only slightly less deserving of scorn, vitriol, and unbridled rage is the 6th Cover Curse. Busting your ass to collect those Legendary Tokens or Command Points, getting the thrill of seeing that purple cover, then the high of an icon for someone you really need…and then HAHA MOTHERFUCKER, YOU CAN’T USE THAT SIXTH COVER! SUCK IT! That is just evil. Something really needs to be done. It’s driving us, your dedicated, loyal players mad with anger. We want to enjoy that joy of finally making high-end progress and getting a 2k Iso kick in the nuts instead of meaningful progress is making many quit. Stop the insanity! So many good ways to go about it without suddenly increasing the flow of actual 5* covers are out on the boards here. Take one!

That’s all I got. See you again after next season! Happy hoarding!

2

Here are the links to all my previous hoards. You know, because some people have nothing better to do.

Season XXXI
Season XXX
Season XXIX
Season XXVIII
Season XXVII
Season XXVI
Season XXV
Season XXIV
Season XXIII
Season XXII
Season XX
Season XIX
Season XVII
Season XVI
Season XV
Season XIV
Season XIII and XII
Season XI(?)

3

gotta agree with the 6th (or more) cover thing. it’s the one thing really holding progress (and this game) back. just have it so you can pick the cover colour. the character draw can still be random. at the least have it so you can pay a small fee in hp or cp to change it.

they’ve made some really good changes lately. this would be the best thing they could do going forward.

4

I can’t help but notice that you hardly ever get 15% on your 5* pulls.

5

Insert CS cookie cutter statement about how pulls are random and there is nothing we can do about this. The game design works as intended.

Thank you for playing!

6

I can’t help but notice you’re complaining about plus or minus ONE cover.

7

I can’t help but notice you’re bad at math.

8

4/36=11.1%
5/36= 13.9%
6/36=16.7%

The closest number to a pull rate of 15% would have been five. And…let me check…he got four! Does five minus four still equal one? They keep changing that on me, and I’m always the last to find out.

9

I can’t but help but notice you insist on stalking my posts to add embarrassingly weak attempts at rebuttals.

Don’t be so lazy and try looking past his most hoard. I’m willing to bet that if you add them all up, his overall rate is statistically significantly lower than 15%.

10

I’ve been hoarding quite awhile and I am only at 19 LTs and 600ish CP. How are you banking that much CP per season…

11

Somewhere out there, someone has consistently gotten slightly higher than 15% on their 5* pulls. When you test out the distribution of a system, you test it over thousands of pulls. A sample size of dozens or hundreds isn’t big enough to get accurate results.

12

Who is The No-Futzer? I can’t figure it out and it’s bugging more than it should. I’ve numbered it down to 5, but still am unsure.

13

±1 cover over 15 seasons really adds up

14

If by embarrassingly weak you mean objectively factual, and by stalking you mean finding the least reasonable post in any thread and then always finding it to be by the same person, then yeah.

His stats are less than 15%. It continues to not be statistically significant by any objective mathematical standard you care to apply.

(Specifically between 9 and 10 percent over a sample size of 165, which is a miniscule sample. We’re still talking about an error term in the single digits.)

15

Who indeed? icon_e_wink.gif

What I find funny about this exchange is that since I’ve logged everything here, one only needs to do a little math to have the factual answer. Hell, this season I even posted the entire summary of my hoards! But I’ll spare everyone the legwork. It only took me two minutes:

Command Point 5* pulls

  • Season XXII: 4/36, 11.1%
  • Season XXXI: 4/30, 13.3%
  • Season XXX: 1/35, 2.8%
  • Season XXIX: 3/34, 8.8%
  • Season XXVIII: 4/36, 16.9%
  • Cumulative total: 16/171, 9.3%

I think simonsez’s heated series of replies earned him a (unwarranted) ban, so I’ll say it for him: Significantly lower than 15%.

Yes, you can go ahead and dismiss it as statistically insignificant. Bearing in mind that we’re talking about a fraction of a fraction here: 15% advertised rate in what is easily the second-least-frequently pulled token type behind LT. We cannot possibly even guess what would qualify as significant unless we had an idea of what the sum total of CP pulls across the player base is. Obviously the devs aren’t going to cough that number up. So yes, we’re arguing about a difference of one (or two) covers, but each one is pretty important.

Top progression in all Versus events (plus placement), top progression in all Story events (plus placement), all node rewards in all Story events, 2* farm, all 3* champed for rewards, 20+ 4* champed for rewards, plus the odd alliance buy or VIP re-up. Aren’t I just Captain Frickin’ Cool? icon_lol.gif

16

Careful with the wording, in the field of data analysis staistically significant doesn’t mean what it means everywhere else.

Statisical significance in data analysis is when it has been tested against the likelihood of said result happening by random chance being limited to a level of xx (commonly in research we use a level of 0.02 we hate the idea of random chance creating our results) if after applying said test your results are p<0.05 THEN we can say it’s statistically significant.

In every other walk of life when someone says significant they mean important. My apologies if you already knew the above info I’m not trying to condescending in any way , most people aren’t aware of it (why the hell would you be unless it’s your occupation?)

Unless you’ve applied the applicable data analysis test on an appropriately large and representative number of participants Then one cannot say the results are statistically significant, one can only make guesses.

17

The statisical data may be insignificant, but being -9 on 5☆ draws as he is IS significant

He’s 16:171, 15% would be 25:171

18

No offense taken. I am certainly no statistitisistiasitsiaitiacian. I think we needn’t go into that level of detail besides. We’re promised 15% pulls on CP and I’m an easy rebuttal. Until Demiurge provides their data, which they won’t and understandably so, it’s about all we have to go on. That’s good enough for me.

19

I’m desperately short on iso. Maybe this time I can resist the lure of shiny tokens and hoard for a whole season… at the least I’m trying to track my pulls. icon_lol.gif

20

Not trying to be combative at all, but we are not guaranteed a 15% draw rate on 5*. It’s actually a single draw rate of 5% for the 25 cp and whatever the diminished draw rate is for 20 cp.

In theory, if you were to add the percentages together, then yes, they would add to 15% out of 100%. However, since the number of legendary draws are not finite, like the vault draws, the draw rates/percentages are actually the lower number (5% for 25 cp).

In reality, barring the 1 season where you only drew 1 5*, your draw rates have been at least 100% better than the percentage guarantee. Pretty nifty how you’ve been keeping track of this!