After getting back to back gold-free 10-packs in Seasons VII and VIII, I was inspired to calculate the probabilities of each possible number of gold covers in a Heroic 10-pack*. These numbers have changed as of Season IX–Previously, there were three
characters in the pack with a 1% chance each, but with the addition of Goddess Thor, D3 has dropped the odds for each individual
to 0.7%. The
odds are unchanged (0.9% for each of 20 characters), so your chances of each cover being gold in your 10-pack have dropped from 21% to 20.8%.
The probability of each individual number breaks down as follows, to the nearest tenth of a percent:
No
: 9.7%
1
: 25.5%
2
: 30.1%
3
: 21.1%
4
: 9.7%
5
: 3.1%
6
: 0.7%
7 or more
: ~0.1%
So, two gold covers is the most likely result, which is not a surprise. You’re more likely to get one than three, and it’s about equally likely that you’ll get four as it is none at all.
Hope you found this informative. Math geek out.
The numbers are the same for a 42-pack (you didn’t actually buy one, did you??), but the gold chances are lower for individual Heroic tokens (0.6% per 4
, 0.7% per 3
, for a total of 16.4%). I will calculate chances for piles of individual tokens by request.
If it’s not very complicated, would be nice to know probability of individual tokens.
I’ve been thinking what is better - to buy a 10-pack for 2800 or 28 daily deals for the same price. It’s hypothetical question (personally I’m not going to buy any of them) but quite interesting I think.
Purple Hawkeye
Red 2* Wolverine
Yellow Ares
Blue 2* Magneto
Black Moonstone
Green Rocket and Groot!
Green Gamora!
Red 2* Thor
Black Ms. Marvel
Red Hawkeye
So, 2 3s, both usable, and 8 2s, none usable. Better than I had any right to expect, but I would like some Red Ms. Marvels, which is the only 2* I need. Never pulled a random one.
I got a red patch sold for ISO then I got a GREEN XFORCE!!! That gave me 4 green and then I had enough HP to buy cover number 5!! My X-force is now 5,5,2 and I am a very happy camper with my 10 pack.
Best cover that I got since season 4.
(needed, mine is presently 5/1/2 - and really? The code for Dr. Octopus is “docock?”)
(Needed as much as anything for IW is needed, I have her at 4/0/2)
(the one color of the hood I keep drawing. Ah well. 4/5/4 isn’t a bad build. Nothing with 5 blue is a bad build.)
After 3 straight seasons of 2*, I’m really happy with this season
Groot green and yellow needed both
deadpool red. (To completed to 5, BOOYAH )
Then 2* ISO , moonstone party (3 of them)
Previous seasons were such a let down, I felt it was a waste of a season, I would like them to guaranty one gold coin. This one was awesome, 3 3* I needed is more than I could ask for.
