I don’t think we ever got official word on Standard Token odds, did we? If so, I missed it. How about we try to figure them out here?
I recently used all 504 that I had. Here’s what I pulled:
410
80
14
Now, I know this by itself isn’t truly indicative of the odds. After all, I had about 5 of those
in the first 100 pulls, and had a streak of 140-ish without any
. But this puts the odds at roughly 82%
, 16%
, & 3%
.
If anyone wants to help, please do so. Mention how many tokens you used and how many of each rarity that you got. For higher accuracy, please only do large numbers of pulls, like 100+, because small samples really skew the odds. I’ll try to keep this updated.
I’ve only ever looked at the % at the top of my spreadsheet and never totaled how many of each. Now I am depressed.
edit : Should note this is not from one giant pull, but from all pulls since I started tracking a while back. I usually open <=50 at a time as part of the 50 token club thread.
After ~12,000 pulls (prior to DDQ and championing characters, I had a hard time getting 3*'s, much less 4*'s, and therefore had very little else to spend iso on; I wasted HUGE quantities on standard tokens)
1*: 84.0%
2*: 13.7%
3*: 2.3%
4*: 0%
The user-collected data thread did have people getting 4*'s and even HP, but I believe that was from a long time ago in the game. Ever since Legendary Tokens were added, the standard token text explicitly states that only 1*, 2* & 3*'s are available, but who knows how long that’s been the case, as the standard token is the only one without published probabilities…
4s were available in standard tokens before the Great Token Realignment, but at incredibly slim odds. Still, I pulled two 4s (Thor and Wolvie) from standards back in the day…
According to IceIX Before he quit (so a while ago
), it is possible to get fourstars from standard tokens, but the chance is so intefismally low that they don’t bother listing it on the token page.
I have been separating tacos and any vaults from any other data. Since a vault has a finite number of items in it, every item is (supposedly) at the same odds of 1/(max number of items in vault). They skew these odds by putting more 2* rewards than 3 and 4 stars. But also, the more you pull, the fewer rewards remaining, thus higher the odds are that you will get a high reward (a choose-then-choose probability). The same can not be said for non-vaults (more of a choose-replace-choose probability)… non vault is more like buckshot. You are likely to hit a target eventually with enough attempts, but nothing is guaranteed.
for example, in tacos, if you spend 300 tokens you are guaranteed all 3 of the 4* rewards. You can spend 300 heroics, and theoretically get zero 4* rewards (unlikely, but it sure feels like this happens doesn’t it?)
