The result is a fair number of volunteers and this Excel spreadsheet to collect information about everyone and the details of their pulls. There has been much discussion in the past few months since their introduction about whether or not LT pulls are truly random (“Three Mr. Fantastics in a row?!”) and whether 5*s are truly distributed at a 10% aggregate rate (“50 LT dry spell”). Let’s put these questions to the test.
Fill out the short questionnaire (most of the fields are drop-downs)
Start tracking the results of LT pulls starting from the beginning of Versus Season XXV (Blade - High Stakes, when Spider-Gwen is added to the LT pool) until the end of the last slice of the third event (Daredevil - Blind Justice?)
Note: if you don’t want me to know your email address, a service like https://anonymousemail.me/ allows you to easily send anonymous emails with small attachments. You can also PM me with a link to a file hosting service.
All surveys submitted to me will be private. I will strip out all account-identifiable information from any public results I post. If we have enough data (200+ pulls), I hope that we will find out some interesting things (including if it is actually an apparently fair random assignment).
Please join us in digging a little bit deeper into MPQ’s end game cover distribution! Feel free to leave a note in here that you’re interested in submitting your pulls (if you haven’t already posted in the other thread) or else just send me your survey at the end.
Tell your friends, preferably that they should send me their data and not just “Malenkov is a huge nerd!”
I’m assuming because as long as everyone opens them the same season, then the odds on each character should stay the same (even if new 4* characters get added, they won’t go into the legendary token pulls until next season). Now, if a 5 star gets added, it could mess with things a little.
That’s correct. Limiting the timeframe also makes it less onerous for people to enter the data and so more likely to participate. In theory. I’m also going to maybe record a few random rosters before and after to check everyone’s math, but that’s mostly so I can pre-empt questions of accuracy.
If I’ve only ever spent $5 on that Google Play sale but have otherwise not paid and probably won’t in the near future (sorry D3!), should I classify myself as F2P or occasional spender?
It’s one of those census “how do you self-classify” questions, so it’s up to you. I’d say F2P, but there are all those articles about how high the bar is to get F2P players to spend that first dollar, but after that the flood gates open…
When I pulled the list of characters from the MPQ wiki, it hadn’t been updated with Spider-Gwen yet, so it wasn’t on the sheet with the list of champions.
I’ve updated the spreadsheet to include her; you can re-download it from the same URL and copy-paste any existing data into the new sheet.
I think the dropdowns work on Excel and OpenOffice (and presumably LibreOffice), but they might not in Google Docs. If you don’t see the dropdowns, just fill it out by hand and I’ll try to reconcile the data myself.
I’m editing on Google Docs, and I see dropdowns for the Color, Type, and Token/CP columns, but not for Character. Not a big deal, I can enter it myself.
Hey OP, if you look for my season-end opening threads, you’ll get almost all of the legendary pulls I’ve had since they started. Not quite all, but almost all. Sign me up!
Right; I’m pulling the values from the Characters sheet and as an embedded list for the other fields. Google Docs doesn’t support the former and Excel’s embedded lists aren’t long enough for all the character names.
If you’re using Google Docs and it’s not too much trouble, copy/paste the character names from the characters sheet. Otherwise I’ll have to reconcile the data myself (I’d rather have the data even if it means I have to do that though).
I’m about to ruin the curve as I just pulled 2/4, one from a Latest Token and one from a classic bought with CP. I guess I can’t complain about anything this season. . .
Good to hear that you’ve had some good luck. I’m 2 for 22 so far, including my 5th black OML. Pretty pleased, but I’m sure that five more of those are around the corner.
