So we always have a discussion on when a new 5* will go into packs and the last 4 releases have been inconsistent, I figured a poll will create a little more statistical data, guessing and fun.
so step right up take you guess when will Havok make his way into LL
If we learned anything from Mr Sinister it’s that we don’t know, if you think it’s useful to read about speculation then yes this thread will be very useful
Professor is arguably as good or better than Bill and had the longest span of time in Latests ever. If anything they are pushing Carnage out because he’s not as well-received.
They’ve defaulted to flipping a coin. Heads means time after HP store. Tails means time after CP store. Then they roll a d10 and it’s that many days after the first coin flip.
It’s always two weeks after the CP store closes. We’ve had two deviations, one over the holiday (expected, since no one would have been in the office), and one where they tried doing it two weeks after the new HP store. And they apparently decided not to do that again.
It hasn’t suddenly become unpredictable. Outside of the one two weeks after the HP store, it’s followed the same pattern for years.
Unpredictable? No, not really. I did think it was usually a Monday but no big deal if it’s Tuesday from now on.
To be fair to everyone, they shook up the release plan quite a bit between:
Starting the “HP Store” release model and
SCL10 offering shards for new 5’s.
So a bit of confusion is understandable.
My serious answer is that they will stick to the “2 weeks after CP store” model as @JHawkInc says. In a way that makes sense in terms of trying to convince people to spend in the HP store. By the time the CP store has been closed for 2 weeks, the new character boost is almost over (about 2-3 days of use). So players who really want the boost on a new 5 need to chase them in HP store, or use up CP in their CP store vs hoarding LTs and CP and getting (under the old release model) about a week and a half of a boosted 5.
Of course that all applies mostly to the top spenders in the game. Assuming they keep the idea (as they have) that the new 5 isn’t essential until they are in Latests, mere mortals can keep hoarding LTs and CP and grab the new 5 that way.
Technically the last release was a deviation - it came out on Tuesday rather than Monday. It used to be Monday on the Data Push. My guess is the last release was a delay due to a mistake or something else - it is a manual process so possibly the person responsible wasn’t in on Monday or else maybe they were closed, or someone forgot, or something like that.
Regardless, I think we can safely say that while it was a deviation, it wasn’t a significant deviation and can be one explained by circumstance. At this point I’d expect Havok in tokens two weeks from today.
If they really are adopting a 4/5/4/5 then I could see them swapping on the same day the new 5* releases. I wouldn’t bet on it, but at this point with no communication on changes and a lot of consistency flying out the windows we may as well make crazy guesses.
Sinister’s store didn’t end until Tuesday. Thus he entered LTs two weeks later, on a Tuesday.
I’ve never bothered tracking who enters on a Monday vs a Tuesday, but the shift between the two days has been pretty normal as far as I remember, all depending on when the store closes. I think Monday is more common, but Tuesday hasn’t been out of the question, either. It’s at least common enough I wouldn’t consider it a deviation from normal.
I think the confusion with Sinister has more to do with the general uncertainty due to the lack of overall communication more than anything else, because the pattern has held true so far.
The real question, then, is that if Havok’s store closes Monday night at Midnight (eastern US), does that count as closing on Monday for him to roll into LTs on a Monday (two weeks later) or does it count as lasting through Monday to close on Tuesday, so he’ll roll into LTs on a Tuesday? (since he’ll roll into tokens in the early AM, either way it’ll be a few hours before or after the “exact” two week marker, but I haven’t tracked past releases close enough to guess which way it’s more likely to lean)