TLDR: The release-rate is out pacing your resource rate.
YOU AREN’T TRANSITIONING THROUGH PVP 1K REWARDS.
PVP 1K progression on 10/25 was Purple/Pink Jean Grey (JG-P hereafter). Let’s try to guess when this reward will be seen again, shall we?
There are currently 19 (DD excluded) 4*’s in the game – with a new one added approximately every two weeks. So you have to go through the other 56 (19x3 -1) covers before getting back to this reward again. You see three covers each week from 1K PVP rewards.
So right now, you’d see JG-P in 19 weeks: Feb 29-March 04 2016. But we haven’t added those new characters in. Assuming you get a new one every two weeks (starting 10-26 to 11-1), you’ll have ten more characters added by that time. They are always rewarded immediately after their release, then added into 4* rotation: so you have to add in those 10 characters covers once, and probably 5 of them twice in the rotation. That’s fifteen more covers for 1K rewards, so five more weeks – why which time there will be –another- two 4* characters added and –another- two 4* 1K rewards after their release, and it’s probably safe to add another one of the new 10 a 2nd time…so let’s add yet another week.
The next time you’ll see JG-P is April 11-April 17 2016 – 25 weeks (almost six months) from now.
YOU AREN’T TRANSITIONING THROUGH LEGENDARY TOKENS.
But wait – you’ll get chances outside of PVP…right? Let’s look at those. You’ll have some chances from heroic tokens – but laughably low chances. You’ll get them from Legendaries (in DDQ) six times a month! Except most of the legendaries with the 4*’s that have been out for any amount of time have already passed – it’s coming up to legendary impossible season: remaining that anyone may have reasonably covered are only SL, KP, PX, -Maybe- Carnage or JG. Also remaining: Cyc, Hulk, Thing, Fal-Cap, MrF, Iceman – these are unlikely to be covered/leveled (so these nodes will be impossible) to the average player (some will have gotten lucky and have these covers—others will have purchased them so the node is possible).
Let’s date those heroics again, shall we? Every time three run (15 days) you’ll have a new 4* character that is added to this rotation as well. So let’s just make guesses, and assume D3 will be “benevolent” and put the characters that have been in the game longest first – so you’ll have some chance to have them covered enough to beat that node.
10/30 Starlord. 11/4 PX. 11/9 Kingpin. 11/14 Carnage. 11/19 JG. 11/24 Thing. 11/29 Fal-Cap. 12/4 MrF. 12/9 Iceman. 12/14 Cyclops. 12/19 Hulk. 12/24 4* added week of 10-30. 12/29 4* added week of 11-13. 1/3/2016 4* added week of 11-27. 1/8 4* added week of 12-11. 1/13 4* added week of 12-25. 1/18/16 MAYBE (assuming another one wasn’t added in) XF rotates in 2nd time….the last time you saw him was 9/15/15, three months ago – and five characters/25 days were added in between. Next time you see him will be even more than that.
This “transition” thread isn’t really being written to the whales, or those who can consistently hit 1300 every PVP. But perhaps you PVE to legendary progression every time as well! That means a two extra legendaries per week, good job!
Now, what are your odds for a specific cover: let’s say JG-P? Right now there are 19 characters – but also 5*’s in there, so you have 1 in 63 chance of that cover. Assuming 4* added every other week, and 5* added once a month, there will be 24 4*’s and 4 5*’s in December – by 2016 you’ll have a 1 in 84 chance to get any specific cover in Legendary tokens.
YOU AREN’T TRANSITIONING WITH HP.
Approximately once a month two 4*’s and one 5* are being added. As a player who is almost down to four 2*’s and one 1* (basically enough for DDQ), my roster slots are already 900HP.
Anyone who kept every 2* character only (selling most 1*’s) has been paying 1000 HP per roster slot for months.
You are paying 3000 HP every season for roster slots (assuming you get the new 5*, you’ll need that slot for that character eventually). Do you make 3000 HP every season? You do? Wow, great! Tell me how, please.
But that’s just for slots. No more buying covers for you!
YOU AREN’T TRANSITIONING WITH ISO
Each 4* costs ~300,000 ISO to level. Do you make 300,000 ISO every two weeks? (HA HA HA HA! No you don’t.)
YOU AREN’T TRANSITIONING WITH COVERS GIVEN OUT.
Every two weeks you need thirteen more 4* covers. Let’s say you aren’t in top 1% (you don’t get T1/2 in anything), and likely not in top 5% (you don’t 1300 each PVP – I don’t know what % does this).
Without that, you received in two weeks: 6x PVP 1K progressions, 2x DDQ legendaries, 4x PVE legendary progressions…..let’s say you pull a ton of heroics every two weeks and get one there….let’s say two from individual + alliance rewards of new character…let’s say two from division of Sim progression/Season progression/Season alliance reward.
That’s pretty good! You’ve received 17! Good job! I’m not sure how many folks/alliances are left that T100 every PVP and PVE…but if you can do that, you are in the top 10% or so of all players. And you barely kept up getting covers (17) compared to covers released (13…again, ignoring 5*’s here…).
EXCEPT, of course, you didn’t get the 17 covers you actually needed, did you? You had a bunch of doubles that didn’t do you any good! Again, as described above: you have a 1 in 57 chance for any given 4* right now, and about 1 in 72 chance by 2016. Those might all be needed! And…they might not be.
And again – that’s assuming you get 17 4*’s every two weeks. I think maybe two of our 20 (T50 PVP alliance) get that many – and we’re almost all hitting every 1K and all alliance/season PVP progressions. DDQ is going to be a toss-up, heroics are a toss-up, PVE most of us don’t run for sanity’s sake. Personally, I likely get an average of 12 (a number that will be going down as I start failing upcoming DDQ’s). That’s still pretty good! But I’m at nearly 600 days also – can you do that at 365 days anymore?
SOLUTIONS TO EACH OF THESE PROBLEMS. IT IS TIME TO SOLVE THESE PROBLEMS.
It’s time to treat the 4*’s like 3*’s used to be. They should be at 800 as a progression reward, they should be given out as T100 rewards for individuals in PVP and PVE, they should be given out as T100 rewards for teams in PVP and PVE.
It’s time to have DDQ-Legendary be daily. Plenty of these coming up won’t be beatable by the vast majority of players – making them daily lets you know that’s ok, you’ll have another chance tomorrow – you don’t have to wait five (or 35) days before you can beat one.
It’s time for roster slots to be capped at a lower amount. 500 HP each is plenty with the current release schedule, that’s still 1500 a season needed!
It’s time for resources to be scaled up in-game as characters are added. Did you add three characters (roster spots) that require 1.1 million ISO to level? How much of a % was that compared to previous season? Time to add iso in at that percentage, perhaps in the “20 iso” rewards or in the daily drop rewards. (This is an HP solution as well!)
It’s time to give out more covers all around. Solutions for this are bandied around all the time: trade covers (in-alliance only?), a new token type that includes 3*/4* only (no 2* or 5*), higher 4* rate in Heroics. Perhaps some mechanic where you sell un-needed covers as a resource to get needed covers….
Note – a very slowed character release rate would also solve all of these problems. But as D3 seems unwilling to do that, their increased release rate has essentially created all of these problems. It is time to fix the problems that this release rate has created.
December 2015 bump: CP did not address resource shortages or getting specific 4* covers!
January 2016 bump: Champions will not address resource shortages or getting specific 4* covers!