3 big boxes 8 mythics (3 dupes)and a lot of rares (many dupes)
Sounds like you got lucky. 3 boxes is a very low sample size.
A member of our coalition has got 4 mythics in one big box (bfz) all new!
i opened 2 bfz and 2 soi bb. zero mythics.
Got a Big Box of Battle for Zendikar* today. Three new mythics, and two new rares (plus one duplicate rare).
Sphinx of the Final Word
Tyrant of Valakut
Zendikar Resurgent
Defiant Bloodlord
Lantern Scout
Matter Reshaper (Duplicate)
- After careful analysis of which sets I had a higher chance of pulling cards I did not already have, and knowing that Aether Revolt is coming, so there is more value in waiting for it to drop first before getting boxes of Kaladesh.
I’ve been noticing this too, over the past two days I’ve gotten 3 rares from five booster packs.
Granted they were all dupes, but still, I think that’s something.
Gather some data, do an analysis, and find out.
I’m going to sit on my packs until the results are in.
We had someone get a 600 crystal pack today and walk away with one rare, the guaranteed one, that’s it.
Today I opened 3 big boxes, 9 Fat Packs, and about 30 boosters, and I got 1 mythic. Some rares, true, but only 1 mythic.
I got seven rares out of one KLD big box and no mythics. Maybe Octal9 can update his sheet with the data from this thread?
That would be a bad idea. Why? People are posting here generally because something exceptional happened. The data is self-selecting in some sense and is not representative; keep reading and you’ll see what I mean. Using this data to estimate overall drop rates is a bit like trying to estimate the percentage of all your customers who are satisfied with your service by using the proportion of praise and complaints you got on your feedback line.
I fully encourage people to add data to Octal’s spreadsheet, but the stats are only valid if the data is unbiased. To ensure unbiased data, the suggested approach is to decide you will add the data before you open the packs, and then follow through as per your decision regardless of what you actually opened.
However, we can validly use the stats collected so far to tell people (from this and other threads) how lucky or unlucky they were, in terms of total number of rares/mythics obtained.
From the very lucky:
On mythics, luckier than 82.2% of people; on rares, unluckier than 58.8% of people
They’re luckier than 85.1% of people
On rares, luckier than 95.6% of people; on mythics, unluckier than 52.0% of people
On mythics, luckier than 96.3% of people; on rares, luckier than 36.3% of people
Luckier than 99.5% of people! 0.43% of people (about 1 in 230) share your luck, and 0.06% of people (about 1 in 1600) would get even more mythics
(Assuming KLD/AER) Luckier than 99.8% of people! 0.14% of people (about 1 in 700) share your luck, and 0.04% of people (about 1 in 2400) would get even more mythics
To the very unlucky…
(Assuming 1 mythic and 9 rares opened in total) Unluckier on mythics than 93.4% of people; unluckier on rares than 99.4% of people(!)
Unluckier than 94.2% of people
Unluckier than 94.7% of people
Unluckier on mythics than 96.8% of people; unluckier on rares than 99.99% of people(!) Only about 1 in about 40,000 people would get even fewer rares!
(Assuming KLD/AER) Unluckier on mythics than 97.2% of people
(Assuming KLD/AER) Unluckier on rares and mythics combined than 98.3% of people
Unluckier than 98.8% of people! About 1.2% (1 in 80 people) share this degree of bad luck
And the “most ordinary luck” prize goes to…
Luckier on mythics than 50.3% of people; luckier on rares than 63.9% of people
Stats explanation:
These stats use estimated drop rates of 0.98% for mythic and 4.34% for rare, as per Octal’s spreadsheet; 95% confidence intervals are 0.65%-1.31% for mythic and 3.69%-4.99% for rares; so actual probabilities could vary somewhat