Latest Token or Classic Token needs to give more shards

Marvel Puzzle Quest MPQ General Discussion
41

It was stated in the Shards thread. Here is the link to the quote:

https://forums.505go.com/discussion/comment/900791/#Comment_900791

But, I missed out that the % comes from LT pulls and I missed out “about”.

Statistically on say, Legendaries, about 33% of players would fail to pull a single BH from 167 pulls. Some of those players that pull a BH would pull a cover they don’t need. With this system, 100% of players get the character and cover they want (assuming they’ve fav’d one character anyway).

42

That sounds like someone told him that about a third wouldn’t receive a 5* BH and he transcribed it as “about 33%”, which implies a higher accuracy.

It is pretty easy to calculate the probability of not receiving a bonus hero in 167though:

>>> p = 0.15 * 0.05
>>> (1 - p) ** 167
0.2844435417820726

To keep that in perspective, we can also calculate the probability of receiving exactly one 5* BH in 167 pulls:

>>> 167 * p * (1 - p) ** 166
0.35895771897435347

That means the remaining 36% would receive multiple 5* BH covers. In other words, more people would receive 2+ covers over 167 pulls than the number of people who received 0 covers.