While I applaud the increase in rewards for Trial of the Planes, I do feel like this was a bit of a wasted opportunity.
WALL of Text warning
Perceived Intention of Trial of the Planes
I understand that the point of this event is as a means for players to convert their Crystals into Jewels with a bit of bonus stuff at the side. As a Platinum player who gets near-zero value from a Premium Pack, I am happy to have this option. Players get to decide how they want to balance saving Crystals in wait of the next set vs collecting Jewels to try for current set mythics/masterpieces. So this event won’t be for everyone and even those who take part may not do so for every Trial event.
I still think the rewards are sufficient for the Platinum tier, even better now that you can potentially get a 50% rebate on your entry fee. If some players feel like their Crystals are better spent saving for the new set, that is their prerogative. I don’t see an issue with the event not refunding your Crystals by the end of the event as its purpose is for earning Jewels. I would rather this than say a free event each day that only earns me 5 Jewels.
Where It Falls Short
However, the oddly rigid adherence to the idea that lower tier reward structures must be a lessened version of the rewards at the higher tiers has been detrimental to the appeal of Trial of the Planes. This rationale works for standard events which are free to play. For those the idea is that your overall participation in the game (denoted by your Colour Mastery tier) determines your rewards. The more you have put in, the more you get. The concept is fair.
Ok, the developers don’t want to be giving out too many Jewels to the lower tiers because they want players to continue progressing up the tiers. That’s fine. But Trial requires a 60 Crystal entry fee. That’s regardless of tier. So the rewards for a Trial event need to be worth this entry fee regardless of tier too.
Here’s where I felt the wasted opportunity is. I’ve commented before in the previous Trial feedback topic (https://forums.505go.com/discussion/comment/650963#Comment_650963) that the rewards could be tailored to the tiers and so achieve the targets of giving more Jewels to the upper tiers but at the same time still making the event rewards relevant to each tier.
We Want New Cards
At all levels of the game, one major appeal of MtGPQ to players is getting new cards. To reiterate with emphasis, one major appeal of MtGPQ to players is getting new cards. Why the emphasis exists will be explained in my following explanation.
When you have no cards in the set, the best way to get new cards is through opening new Premium Packs. This is cause you have new cards to get from all rarities: common, uncommon, rare and mythic. And masterpiece if that is to stay moving forward. When a new set is released, it is the same situation for everyone. However, as a player collects a greater and greater percentage of the set, the odds of getting a new card decreases. Nothing surprising.
At some point, the player gets such a high rate of duplicates (ie. such a low rate of procuring new cards) that it is no longer ideal to keep spending Crystals on Premium Packs. That is where Jewels are supposed to come in. With the different rarities, inevitably the bulk of the yet unobtained cards will be from the mythic (or masterpiece) rarity.
Player Categories
Because of this natural pattern, I would like to split players into three categories:
Fresh: These are players who have barely collected any cards in the particular set. For simplicity’s sake we will assume that most Bronze and some Silver players fall into this category until late into the set’s life.
Intermediate: These are players who have the majority of the commons and uncommons, some of the rares and maybe a handful of mythics. We will assume that some Silver and some Gold players will fall into this category until the next set comes along.
Incomplete: There are players who have essentially all the commons, uncommons and possibly even rares and are primarily hunting the mythics (and masterpieces if applicable) in a set. We will assume that Platinum players primarily fall in this category along with some high-performing Gold players.
Opportunity Costs - Premium Pack vs Trial of the Planes
Let’s look at the opportunity costs between Trial of the Planes and the only other regularly available sink for Crystals: Premium Packs. These two represent the most common avenues in which we can spend our Crystals in our attempts to get new cards. For parity in cost (300 Crystals), we will compare playing a week of Trial of Planes to a Premium Pack.
[Let’s put aside Big Boxes. We all would rather go back to those days. But the developers have stonewalled us entirely on any insights to the switch from Big Boxes to Premium Packs. And the fire over it has mostly died down. People have either moved onto other games or tuned down their enthusiasm about the game accordingly.]
We also won’t be comparing to special offers because we can’t predict those and can’t estimate their value. Each players has to decide how much of a buffer they want to keep to account for special offers. For some like @shteev that is essentially all their Crystals once they hit this stage, for some it’s a fixed amount.
Now the opportunity cost is different for players from each category due to the differing expected gains from a Premium Pack as well as the different rewards for different Mastery Tiers. Let’s look at Incomplete players for the most straightforward example. All calculations will be based on octal9’s data as its the largest database currently available.
Expected Returns Comparison - Incomplete Category
Premium Pack: Yields 25 cards giving you a 23% of drawing a mythic, which probably means a 10 - 20% chance of drawing one or more new cards. Plus a guaranteed rare+ which if only a rare is likely to be a duplicate. To get a 50% chance of drawing a mythic, you need to open 3 Premium Packs (54.4%) and that’s with the chance of getting a duplicate. In short, Premium Packs are terrible value for Incomplete players.
Trial of the Planes: Gives you the same number of cards as a Premium Pack, hence giving you the same odds for drawing a mythic or new card as a Premium Pack. So the difference is the guaranteed rare versus the other rewards which for 5 x Trial of Planes are 105 Jewels & 0 - 150 Crystals (depending on how often you hit perfect score). 105 Jewels is 26% of the cost of an Elite Pack which yields you a mythic or masterpiece. So essentially for an additional 5 - 7 hours each week and the same Crystal cost, you almost double your chances (combined chance is 43%) of getting a mythic/masterpiece and proportionally the chances of a new card at the expense of the guaranteed rare.
edit - I got the numbers wrong the first time round
So if you are willing to put in the time and have good enough decks to consistently earn all the Jewel Progression tiers, logically it should be a no-brainer to participate in Trial of the Planes. For Gold players, they instead earn 40 50 Jewels & 0-25 more Jewels depending how regularly they can hit a perfect score. That’s 12 - 1619% of an Elite Pack which brings your combined odds for a mythic/masterpiece to 31 33 - 35 37%. I think it is a harder decision for Gold Incomplete players to determine whether they should participate in Trial of the Planes. Perhaps this is the group that the developers are encouraging to move up a tier.
Expected Returns Comparison - Fresh Category
Premium Pack: A Premium Pack is likely to give a Fresh player 5+ to double digits of new cards. So lots of new cards**!** And the guaranteed rare.
Trial of the Planes: Bear in mind that this gives the player an equal number of packs and hence an equal number of new cards as the Premium Pack excluding the guaranteed rare. Even with perfect scores for all 5 Trials of the Planes, a Fresh player in Silver would only earn 50 Jewels. That’s 12.5% of an Elite Pack. And that’s already assuming the player gets perfect scores nonstop which is highly dubious for a Bronze/Silver tier player. Losing just the perfect score Progression tier would drop the gains to 30 Jewels or 7.5% of an Elite Pack. Compared to a guaranteed rare? Bleh, don’t waste my time and crystals.
Hence for Fresh players, the logical conclusion (and rightly so) is that Trial of the Planes is a waste of time. There is this entire swathe of players for which the right conclusion is that this optional event is a waste of their time. This is the wasted opportunity I’m talking about.
Expected Returns Comparison - Intermediate Category
Premium Pack vs Trial of the Planes: Since we’ve established through the previous two examples that the number of cards opened is the same and hence the cards opened from packs are not a factor when deciding between the two options, we will just compare the guaranteed rare from a Premium Pack versus the other gains from Trial of the Planes. That’s a guaranteed rare versus 7.5 - 16% of an Elite Pack for 5 - 7 hours of play time. At this level it really depends on what the player decides they want more.
So what’s this Wasted Opportunity and What can be done about it?
The wasted opportunity is that Trial of the Planes with the right reward structure could have been an attractive option for Fresh and even Intermediate players looking to bolster their card collection. The examples and explanation above should have (hopefully) made it abundantly clear that Fresh players value card packs more than a few Jewels to build towards an Elite Pack.
If the developers were concerned about not letting lower tier players earn Jewels too quickly, the solution should have been to cater the rewards to what lower tier players want which is more card packs instead of more Runes (which even with the new update depriving us of the currently best source of Runes is still relatively worthless).
I think it would have been fine to keep the total Jewel gain for Bronze and Silver at 3 and 5 Jewels respectively if the overall reward structure was like:
Points: Bronze / Silver
5 : KLD pack . . / KLD pack
10: 3-card pack / 3-card pack
20: 1 Jewel . . . / 2 Jewels
30: 750 Runes . / 1000 Runes
40: 3-card pack / 3-card pack
50: 2 Jewels . . / 3 Jewels
60: 3-card pack / 3-card pack
How does one value a 3-card pack in this. From this thread (https://forums.505go.com/discussion/comment/657949#Comment_657949) we estimate that the drop rates are approximately half that of a 5-card pack. And with them giving lesser cards we can approximate 4 3-card packs to be the value of 1 5-card pack. However, bear in mind that the 3-card packs draw from the collection of all the non-exclusive cards in the game which dilutes the chances of a new card for players who are at the Intermediate/Incomplete category for the whole game but is great for newer players, which then makes this a possible option for newer players looking to build their collection but at the expense of time and at the risk of not hitting that many of the Progression reward tiers.
One thing to note is that the developers cannot include another 5-card pack into the Progression reward tiers as that would make Trial of the Planes potentially give double the rewards of a Premium Packs in cards on top of the Jewels. Now while we would all love that, let’s accept that the options have to be somewhat comparable to each other (even if many of us veteran players grumble about the choices we now have as opposed to those in the past).
Now naturally as the player collects more cards overall, the 3-card packs decrease in value to them and the Jewels from Gold will start looking more attractive. So players at this stage may then consider to move up to the next Mastery tier. The Rune reward tier in Gold could also be switched to a 3-card pack to make the transition less drastic though I would say the two options are probably of similar value to a Gold player.
Summary
Tl;dr The developers can consider to give 3-card packs as rewards in the Trial of the Planes Progression reward tiers for Bronze and Silver players to make the event at least a viable option for those players rather than just giving strictly lesser rewards than Gold and Platinum without having to give out too many Jewels at the lower tiers. Players will then naturally want to progress to the higher tiers to gain access to the rewards from Trial of the Planes which are appropriate for their collection status.
P.S. On a separate note, I think the current stance about Elite Packs not giving duplicates should be made permanent. Ie. Elite Packs should not ever give you a duplicate. By rough calculations, players earning the highest tier rewards for all events should be able to get enough Jewels for an Elite Pack once every two weeks. If the developers think that giving their top-performing players (and/or paying players) a guaranteed new mythic/masterpiece once every two weeks is too often… I think they will have severely overestimated the appeal of the game.