Apparently, @Bad has discovered time travel and decided to come back in time to inform us of his future posts. In such a case, I was hoping for more useful future information, but I’ll settle for this.
I’m also tired of this topic showing up every month ad nauseum , as bbigler noted. And then the same discussion follows .
It’s not like the topic was vague. You didn’t have to click.
Draw rates do seem a bit off… but bad streaks happen and droughts happen.
Part of the MPQ hamster wheel
I’ve yet to see a 100 pull fail streak.
and now that you’ve said that, get ready for a 100 pull fail streak.
I find it interesting that people have that many CPs saved up and expect a different rate of return in multiple pulls.
Just because a casino (for example) boasts a 97% slot payback, people will expect to get a return of $97 for every $100 they put into any given machine. That 97% payout is an average of all their machines over the course of months or years, not per machine.
When I’m given a 1:7 chance of a 5*, I don’t assume I’m going to get one for every 7 pulls. Especially when I see a 4* with 35x odds in the 4* list. Have you noticed the Odds for getting a 4* have been removed? To me this could equate to odds of 93:100, or you might see seven 5*’s in every 100 pulls… over the course of several months if not years.
How far into the future do we have to wait?
I think it’s like Quantum Leap. He’ll tell us when the next leap…is the leap home.
He might be a while.
You all are funny.
I had to do a lot of work but it’s done
I wonder if people would complain if the devs just simplified the algorithm to give a random 5* every 7th pull EXACTLY.
Yes they would, because that draw got them Abigail when they were hoping for Elektra.
And even if they got an Elektra, they’d complain that it was the 8th Purple cover they got for her, instead of that last Red cover they really needed.
Yeah, I’d guess people will always find something to complain about. Although I understand ones anger on having only single 5* in 80 pulls. But it is how it is, we all experienced something like that. And then there is a streak of 3/4 5* one after another.
How many of you will submit a ticket to CS if you got three 5* out of 7 pulls in a special store and request them to exchange 2 of the random 5* to 2 random 4*, for the sake of fairness and because RNG is not working properly?
Probably none of us. Especially since the 3 out of 7 probably brought us just barely back up to the stated odds across the board.
Though, I do recall opening a ticket once with CS because I’d drawn more Hawkeye’s than I could use and wanted them converted to Panther/Thanos. But I digress…
They can stop this happening by giving a 5 star automatically next pull if you don’t get a 5 star in the last 50 pulls (as an example).
I wouldn’t too. And that’s the problem. We players are greedy. We want things to go things our way and any slight advantage we got randomly against the system should be seen as a norm or as an entitlement. We need to be aware that there are a few psychogical weaknesses or defects that inflicts us humans. They are:
- negative bias
- gambler’s fallacy
- the belief that “I’m the lucky one”. If I’m not as lucky as I feel I should, the system is rigged against me. This is very common among those players pulling from Spicy Vault. To them, getting the 4* cover on the 40th pull = game is rigged. It’s impossible to get 4* cover on the 40th pull.
- need for perfection/consistency: 1/7 means I should get one 5* cover every pull. Unfortunately, probability doesn’t work that way for small numbers consistently.
The laws of large numbers go hand in hand with RNG. Unfortunately, due to the above, we feel that the system is garbage and rigged against us. But science/maths says otherwise.
As for pity timer or its equivalent, the dev said/hinted before that putting pity timer into pulling LT/special stores cannot happen without adjusting the odds. If you are thinking they will change the odds from 15% to 18% pull rate, it’s time to wake up. Chances are our odd will be reduced from 15% to 12% or fewer.
Pulling for 5 star characters should be a big exciting moment for a player of this game. It is very demoralizing when it does not work out. I know the odds will even out over time but I feel like they should even out over a shorter time than 1000s of pulls. And I think that even more for special stores, where no one could be expected to pull that many.
Demoralizing ??? !
Disheartening? Disappointing? Did you have a better adjective?
I know that when you have saved up tokens for a while and it is finally time to open them and cover the latest 3, but instead you get just a few, it feels underwhelming at best, when it should be an exciting moment.