What the hell? Just spent 2k cp in LL and just got one 5*, the same problem also happens a lot to one of my alliance players, what kind of buffoonery is this!?
The RNG is a harsh mistress.
It just took me 96 pulls to get one Crystal cover. I hear your frustrations. But it is what it is
I have a run like that every 3-4 months. And then you come out the other side of it and have a week where you have 20-30% of pulls be 5*. It all averages out in the end.
That’s redacted man.
Mod note: Please refrain from using foul language on the forum. It’s a violation of rule 6. - fight4thedream
I mean I just pulled a 5* Star Lord from his cover store so I can’t really complain. As for LL’s yeah you can go on a stretch where you will pull very few 5s sometimes. On my last hoard I only did like a 14% pull rate which sucked.
That’s why it’s good to track your pulls because it’ll manage your emotions better. I had a few dry spells and it even out after that.
Are you saying you got just 1 5* cover out of 80 pulls? Or just 1 Crystal cover out of 80 pulls?
If the former, then the odds of that happening are very very small, but still possible.
Got her on 2nd pull, 2 in total from 32 pulls (plus 4 each of the other 2). So 10 out of 32 is unusually good.
The probability to get exactly 1 5-Star cover from 80 legendary tokens is 0.85^79 * 0.15 * 80 = 3.186e-5 or about 1:31385. It is very very unlikely but not astronomically low.
I’m curious, when you hear players saying that they got 1 5* out of 80 pulls, what kind of result do you imagine?
Are you thinking that that player pulled the 5* on the:
- 80th pull
- 40th pull, followed by 40 4* covers
3)20th pull, followed by 60 4* covers - others
It seems like eveyone defaults to 1 5* at the 80th pull. If the result is 1 5* at the 40th pull, followed by 40 4* covers, does it change your perception?
The more I think about it, the more I think the game should track this for us and have it easily accessible. Even though I do track my LL pulls, it seems dumb to tell users of a mobile game to track how bad their luck is so they can feel better about it when it finally creeps back up to the estimated probability.
- Others: I presume they spent 2K CP for 80 pulls and got only 1 5* someplace in that 80.
When players are looking for a specific character (ie Crystal) they’ll write what Borstock wrote which is it took him 96 pulls to get one cover for her.
KGB
It does indeed even out in the end: my 5* pull rate is 15.9% or 1 in 6.3 (sample size of 2365 LLs), so I’m expecting a long dry spell to start anytime now.
It’s interesting how humans look at the same thing differently.
Just one 5* and it was elektra.
Dang. That’s worse than mine. It took me 96 pulls to get Crystal rostered, but there were plenty of Abigails and two Elektras in there.
80 pulls for 1 5* it’s a dry spell quite devastating, no matter if it’s on the 30th pull or on the 80th, I can understand the frustration.
I’m preparing a post of the results from my hoard and there I’ll post videos when I have access to wifi in several days.
First, I must point out that we have a thread like this every month and every month we tell that player that dry spells happen to all of us but the 5* rate evens out in the end.
Second, (guessing the 5* cover was in the middle) having a dry spell of 40 pulls is unlikely, but it still happens. Having 2 back to back dry spells of 40 pulls is very very unlikely and I hope this player doesn’t lose hope because of it.
Third, I would bet that his 5* odds are going to be above 15% in the next 80 pulls. The funny thing about probabilities is that there must be hot spells to offset the dry spells, because the average rate over time always approaches 15%. It’s funny because each pull is independent of the previous pulls and has no memory of past pulls. But…..without fail, “hot spells” follow dry spells, you just don’t know when they’re coming.
In my future post I will prove the opposite.