No but the game was never trying to make significant money off people like me so I don’t expect the game to have a reason for me to buy HP.
If you look at the HP breakdown chart from the article it was something like cover packs at top, followed by ability upgrade and roster upgrade (not sure which order).
Roster is likely a stable source of income and doesn’t need to be touched.
Ability upgrade likewise is probably pretty stable and doesn’t need to be changed.
So that leaves us with cover packs, which is also the biggest slice of the game’s HP expenditure and therefore, almost certainly revenue. They’re obviously sold to the guys who buy the 3800 10-pack event stuff. The problem is that if you put say 3* guaranteed tokens for 1100 (which is massively underpriced), the guy buying the 3800 HP 10 pack is going to think ‘last time I bought one of those 10-pack I got only 1 Loki, so surely having 4 guaranteed 3* is going to be better’. And of course that is much better, so D3 loses the revenue they could’ve gotten on a guy who buys the 3800 HP 10 pack. Now, since the packs cost nothing, you can argue that maybe you can sell more overall to make it up. However, looking at the extremely unbelievable lowball suggestions here tells me that even if they underpriced it at 1100 almost certainly every one of you will still complain it’s too expensive and not buy it, so the net result is that a guy who normally buy 3800 HP 10-pack and gets 1-2 3* now gets about 4 for the same amount, and ends up spending significantly less money overall.
The vast majority of players can be classified as too cheap or too gullible. It also doesn’t matter if you once spent money, because what matters is now. If you have a decent selection of 141s and assuming nothing significant changes with the game, there’s relatively little incentive for you to spend more money on the game. While season 1 probably led to some increase expenses in shields, it’s obvious that when you’ve time to look at it, the amount of HP you spent in shields for the placement is completely irrational, and the season structure is a relatively signficant change to the existing paradigm. Unless they roll out 10 P2W characters in a row, there’s no way an established player will feel pressured to buy new characters.
On the other spectrum you got the too gullible (or maybe too rich) who will just buy this stuff anyway. There are relatively few guys in between that could be convinced with a reasonable reduction in the way overpriced comic pack, and there’s no reason to believe there are enough guys in the middle to make up for the rich/gullible that ends up buying less. And the rich/gullible absolutely will buy less if you have a significant reduction in cost. If it’s say 200 HP per 3* like you suggested, a guy can buy 19 of those instead of the usual 3800 HP 10-pack. He’s going to hit a point where he has all the hero he needs, and simply realizes that if he’s only missing one guy he’ll just do ability upgrade on that instead of hoping buying another 25 3* tokens and hope he draws what he needs.
For whatever reason, gamble pack works very well despite their horrible odds. Unless you can educate the entire playing population to understand that they should almost never buy any pack to begin with, there’s no incetive to try to make money off you or me, because by offering a reasonable deal to someone who was willing to pay for the overpriced packs represents a huge drop in profit and any decent metrics will show that most people are too cheap to buy stuff anyway so the potential gain by offering a reasonable deal is very small compared to the certain loss of profit of sales to the cover pack buyers.