Doing my own math, it comes up with similar results. That said, it does little to reduce the frustration felt at a system claiming that 1 in 3 PP’s will have a mythic, and yet after 1880 crystals, nothing!
It really takes away a lot of enthusiasm for spending your hard earned crystals, and the entire experience of a new set launching.
There is a reason why other collectible games tend to feature pity timers, to ensure that even in fringe cases of bad luck, a player WILL get something sooner rather than later. For something like heartstone it means that you are GUARANTEED a legendary card in your first 10 packs of a new set, and a pity timer that ensures a legendary card at least every 40 packs.
Instead, we get something like IXL which really managed to kill any sense of reward from earning and opening boosters, where you could litterarily open hundreds of boosters and not get a single mythic in them.
Even worse, that creates a psychological experience which connects opening premium packs to disappointment and a feel bad experience. After a certain point, as happened with IXL, you don’t really feel like even opening them at all, since you anticipate it will be a bad experience, and rather than the excitement of maybe getting something great, you open “rewards” expecting to be disappointed and get nothing.
That seems like a really bad model for convincing players to invest in the game.
6 PP’s are 1880 crystals, currently you can buy 1850 crystals for the equivalent of 87$
Just think of how great it would feel to pour almost 90$ into the game, and get NOTHING except more duplicate rares. It certainly does nothing to convince me that I should move away from F2P.
This is made even worse with a new set, since you cannot craft any of the cards, and even after the first month the cost remains prohibitively high.
To compare; It’s christmas, you head down to the christmas tree, full of excitement, hoping to get that new lego mtg set you wished for, or maybe another lego set, who knows? You get your present, and yes, it sounds like lego, so full of excitement you start unpacking it to uncover the mysteries within, already looking forward to playing with your new toy!
Then you open a present, and discover that sound was a few quarters inside. No matter, you got a big family, so you dive into the next present, surely this must contain something exciting! More pennies..
And on an on, by the end, you sit there with 20$ in pennies and no lego except a stupid single car and figurine. Your parents tell you, “its ok, you can just use the money to buy some lego”. You go to the store, only to discover that the lego you want is not available again until january, and then you find out that in january it will cost 50$ for a single set, but its ok, they will eventually lower the price in APRIL (aprox the time until ravnica hits), so you can keep your “christmas present” of 20$ and wait 3-4 months, while all the other kids play with their awesome new toys…merry christmas…
That is the experience the current system entails, does it sound like something that will make you excited for christmas next year, knowing you are in for more of the same?
Happy customers is not about telling them “there was a 10% chance of getting nothing”, it is about feeling like you had a good and fair experience or not.