So recently I’ve noticed whatever they did to rubberbanding, it’s making the event relatively insensitive to when you played your last refresh, and I don’t see how it could possibly work with just tweaking the formula, so here’s my theory. As soon as the last refresh starts, the leader is replaced by a fictional guy who has points set at a level D3 thinks is about right to hit whatever progression goal they intended to hand out. This guy has points that is generally far above anyone can possibly reach (since we know from past experience nobody was ever close to hitting the levels you’d need to get the top progression), and the rubberband is set so that if you grinded all your mission down to 1 you’ll barely surpass this hypothetical guy.
Therefore because nobody can realistically beat this fictional bracket leader, the timing of your last refresh becomes irrelevent because this fictional guy is the bracket leader the moment the last refresh started, unless someone grinded ultra hardcore to actually surpass this fictional leader. From this, D3 can then set the progression reward to be achieveable by someone who got say, 90% of the fictional leader’s points (or any other % based on whatever metrics they use).
Or it can just be that we’re overdue for progression rewards that are actually reachable, but the reachability of Daken cover seems way too well planned to be an accident. Looking at the rate, the top scorers will comfortably hit it, but from there on it’s far less certain. Based on history, usually we have the progression rewards that are totally trivial to get (I think we had top score that are twice of the max progression reward in the last Hulk), or totally impossible to get (quite a few cases where top score wasn’t even half of what’s needed).
Maybe someone from D3 can confirm if they indeed installed mechanism to make the last minute push less important. I’m sure it’d help people enjoy the game more if it is indeed the case that you no longer have to worry about playing at the exact last 2 hours of a PvE event finish. Note that for the no rubberband brackets, there are obviously no timing issue at all. The more you can win, the better off you’ll be.