Wanted - pack opening data!

Magic: The Gathering - Puzzle Quest MtGPQ General Discussion
1

The imminent release of Hour of Devastation (HOU) to mtgpq (planned for some time this week) heralds the mass opening of large quantities of hoarded or freshly purchased packs. We want your pack opening data!

Last time this happened (at the AKH release), dozens of you entered over ten thousand opened cards. Your contributions let us pinpoint drop rates more accurately than ever before. We now know confidently that commons drop at (or very close to) the rate of 11 out of every 20 random cards from normal packs, uncommons at 8 from every 20, rares 1 in 25, and mythics 1 in 100. And we saw that drop rates don’t appear to change across pack types (other than 3-card packs), or card sets.

So given what we’ve already learned, what use would even more data be? Well, it can help to answer open questions like:

  • The drop rates above add up to 100% without accounting for masterpieces - which do drop sometimes - so which of those drop rates is overestimated?
  • Do masterpieces drop at 1 in 1000 cards? 1 in 2000? Something else?
  • Will drop rates change with the HOU release?
  • Are drops within a rarity truly uniformly random?

If you’d like to donate your pack opening data to the community to help answer questions like these, you can enter your cards as you open them in the HOU bulk open [* Edit] tab of octal9’s spreadsheet. Or you can record a video, post it, and someone will enter the data for you.

Happy opening and good luck.

* Edit: Since HOU cards are being released in a separate pack to AKH, there’s now a new HOU tab on the spreadsheet with just the HOU cards, which should mean less scrolling during data entry.

2

I’ll be entering another ~25 packs worth. It is interesting they still advertise “higher chance of rare” on the Super Packs though…

3

I’ve been live streaming all my non 3 card packs on my YouTube channel (YouTube.com/majincob).

I don’t know if someone has entered all of those yet.

I expect to be opening hundreds of packs after the update if they’ve fixed the pack opening and missing duplicates bugs.

4

I’ve got 600 crystals ready for two premium pack purchases, so I’ll put that data in, as well. Happy to help add to the research and great job with the spreadsheet. I know I didn’t add my recent Masterpiece pack in there, (1 Masterpiece and 2 Rares in there.. amazing.. ) but if you like I still can. After the initial “onslaught” I thought you may have had enough data.
If you want continuous pack opening after the initial wave, I’m happy to do so, though.

5

Here’s 3 premium packs worth. I think I had pretty good luck. :slight_smile:

6

Two HOU Premium Packs + 1 Booster Packs (+3 from story/training) = 60 Cards
1st pack 2 different Rares (Nimble Obstructionist & Champion of Wits); 2nd pack 2 of the SAME rare (Vizier of the True).

Total Uncommons between 2 Premium packs = 14 unique (5 duplicates) = 19 Total Uncommons
Total Commons between 2 Premium packs = 25 unique (2 with 3 dups, 8 with 2 dups) = 37 Commons

7

Opened 1 PP got 1 mythic, 3 rares, 10 uncommons and the rest are common.

Rare/mythic : Majestic Myriarch
Refuse/Cooperate
Resilient Khenra
Solemnity

8

Opened 1 PP, got 1 rare (the guaranteed), 12 uncommon (3 were identical dupes), rest common. Pretty rough pull.
Opened one 400 unobtainium masterpiece, got Angel of Condemnation

9

Purchased 2 PP and 1 SP (65+2 Guaranteed Rare cards in total)
38 commons - 18 dupes
27 Uncommon - 18 dupes
2 Rare - 1 dupe

I feel like I might end up in the bottom 1% in the luck chart with those numbers.

Edit:
Also bought an Elite Pack and got Wildfire Eternal (Mythic)

10

Something bizarre is going on with my luck today. Hoarded Amonkhet opens:

11

3 PP + 1 booster + 1MC(400) + 2MC(120)
commons: 36 + 19 dupes
uncommons: 22 + 6 dupes
rares: 6 + 2 dupes (1 dupe was from PP and 1 was from MC(120))
mithyc: 2 (1 was from MC(400) - Wildfire Eternal)

I didn’t enter the data in spreadsheet…

12

1 premium pack, only the guaranteed rare. (overcome)

1 elite pack - Armageddon

13

Bought a Premium pack. Got 2 rares Solemity and Quarry Beetle. My guaranteed Quarry Beetle…

Thanx

//Merged From “New set no changes”

14

Opened two more PPs pack two only the Rare was a dupe of refuse/ cooperate.

Third PP I recieved No Mercy and Dream stealers.

15

10 Premium packs
Mythic/Rare/Uncommon/Common
1/2/8/14
0/2/11/13
0/3/10/12
0/3/9/13
0/3/11/11
0/1/11/13
0/1/7/18
0/1/8/16
0/2/10/13
0/3/8/14

16

To recap Mythic rate is 1 out of 250 cards/ 21 Rares / 103 Uncommons and 136 Commons… seems to be a lot worse than the previous set

17

I would attempt to explain Variance, but @Volrak should be here any moment now with a bell curve chart to illustrate the point.

18

ouch that blows, sorry mate

19

Oooof that’s rough.

But thank you for being the unlucky one for the rest of us!

20

First 3 pack purchased with crystals “High chance for rare”. No rares at all. 2 uncommons and the rest were common. I’m deleting this app now. Later folks