OMG, i just posted yesterday that i got two GRIM FLAYERs in a roll, and just opened an SOI pack today and guess what?
Got my THIRD Grim Flayer in a roll! Yay!
How’s this even possible!?
Still sitting at 8 BB opened, 0 mythics so I feel your pain. Have had better luck elsewhere, for my month of december SOI fatpack I got 3 mythics.
Opened 2 Kaladesh BBs today… I dont have a single Mythic from the set.
No Mythics on the first box.
Second box in back to back packs… I got the same Mythic. If using a true random generator, the chances of getting the same mythic in back to back packs is really really really low.
They dont post the chances because its manipulated to some extent and not really “random.”
I’m sorry you had bad luck. The chance that a Kaladesh mythic you open is the same as the last one you got is 1/17, about 6%.
That’s low odds for any individual, but high enough that it should be happening to players all the time. 1/17 means every coalition can be expected to have a player with the same bad luck. If only 10% of active event players (3,000 players) have opened two Kaladesh boxes, then 176 players of them can be expected to have shared that experience, if the cards are completely random.
I don’t know why D3 doesn’t post the odds, but I agree that if they did, it would help them to be more transparent with the players, and help us set our expectations realistically when buying packs.
Sorry, your math isn’t quite complete. The probability of two independent events happening is calculated by multiplying the probably of each independent event. So 1/17 * 1/17, or about 0.35% chance.
The odds you’ve quoted are the odds of getting two of the same specific mythic card in a row. You’ve forgotten to multiply by 17 - getting two in a row can happen in 17 different ways (for each of the 17 possible mythics). 1/17 is the applicable odds in your case - that is, unless you’d have been perfectly happy with any two mythics in a row, except for the one you actually got two in a row of.
Fix your game before you kill it
And of course the guy with the bad math is the one up voted. Voltak got it right.
No. I got the same specific Mythic back-to-back. The odds I stated are quite correct. Read my original post, I got the same Mythic twice in a row. You can’t get more specific on the odds without knowing the algorithms they are using. The first mythic you draw, you have a 1/17 chance of getting that specific one if they are weighted evenly. The next time you draw, you still have a 1/17 chance of getting that one again. Prove me wrong with Math and not words and I will concede.
I dont think in my entire life I’ve been called “the guy with bad math” lol
As he explained already, unless you would be happy to have any other mythic back to back, and are only dissapointed in having this specific one out of 17 mythics back to back, then your math was wrong.
You’re calculating the probability of getting a specific mythic twice in a row, not the probability of getting the same mythic twice in a row.
Prove me wrong with Math and not words and I will concede.
Check pm.
Sorry! Arguing different things.
Math for any KAL mythic (not a specific one): 17/17 (since any mythic) and then (1/17) for the next event = 1 * (1/17).
But in reality, the % is still not valid because you would have to know the chances of pulling mythics vs other cards, and that’s really the issue.
ohboy’s math is really bad
Given the total absence of support for any other meaning, I guess you must be going for definition #36 at dictionary.com.
bad
adjective
36. Slang. outstandingly excellent; first-rate
Err… Even orgazmo has realised he made a mistake in his calculations.
Perhaps you want to take a stab at it?
I think the term in google you all looking for is what are the odds of head if I get 9 heads in the row when I flip the coin
SPOILER ALERT
still 50%
but that with the coin when we can see an can examine it physically
players can’t be 100% sure that D3 algorythm is completely random this simply without looking at source code cannot be proven so it could be possible that the 10th flip would be 0.5 to the power of 10 chance in D3 universe we simply dont know
I see your gambler’s fallacy and raise you a Russell’s teapot!
I’ll call and raise with Occam’s Razor.
You can’t raise me if we’re playing the same hand lol.
cough
Let’s stick to the topic, k?
Oh, yeah.
Was worth a shot. 
Back to the maths for a moment though, the chances of receiving the same mythic in consecutive big boxes is much lower than receiving them from non-consecutive big boxes, right?