I’d like to have it anyways.
83/15/2/negligible. Roughly.
I’ve always worked under the assumption that the odds were split in 6ths.
So Heroics are ~5/6, 2*.. and the remaining 1/6 is split between 3* and 4* in the same 5/6 : 1/6 ratio.
So in a heroic pack
~83.3% 2* (5/6 draws)
~13.9% 3* (5/36 draws)
~2.7% 4* (1/36 draws)
I have been assuming that standards take that same ratio and shift them over another 1/6.
~83.3% 1* (5/6 draws)
~13.9% 2* (5/36 draws)
~2.3% 3* (5/216 draws)
~0.5% 4* (1/216 draws)
I’m not sure if my assumptions are completely accurate, but that’s the model I’ve been using when I try to estimate how unlikely it is that I draw something trainable.
They just changed the 3* rates for Heroics, but it was/is 2.3% for a 4% (source: https://forums.505go.com/discussion/26828)
As for the standards, your idea is in the realm of possiblity. They’re at about 26k user recorded (i’m assuming the 5/8 distinction is when hero points were removed), and while 1*/3* rates look right, 2* is at 14.4 and 4* .0002. That’s what I based it on, given we have no other data on the subject and it’s strangely a huge mystery what they actually are.
I know other than when I first started (and way before I started tracking), I pulled a 4* once or twice. I haven’t pulled one from a standard since I started tracking, which is going on 10 months and well over 1000 standards.
At .5%, the chance that I’d have zero 4* in exactly 1000 pulls is less than 1%. At .02%, the chance that I’d have zero pulls is almost 82%. That’s strong enough evidence for me that the user collected is closer to the correct answer.
The actual answer is they’re too low to mathematically register so get rounded down to 0. (for anything you actually want)
I just see them as 100 iso tokens and if I get anything better its just a bonus. I get a gold from a standard about once a month and a useful cover from them about twice a year.
Over 2972 standard tokens I’ve recorded the following:
1* 2488 (83.71%)
2* 426 (14.33%)
3* 58 (1.95%)
4* 0 (0%)
Sample size is large enough that I think those should be fairly accurate. I’ve heard people claim to get 4* from SRT but I’ve yet to see one
*in terms of ISO you can assume its roughly 129 per SRT.
I can confirm you can get 4* draws from standard tokens. I can’t recall exactly how many but at least 2 of my x-force covers came from standard tokens, and I think I got closer to 4. I also got one of my Invisible Woman from standards.